We finished the 2025–26 fiscal year with an average ROI per unit of –4%. Ouch. Hopefully we learned something.
San Diego at St. Louis
There’s an expectation that the Cardinals are going to fall off, and while it’s probably overblown regarding the long run, it’s even more likely to be overblown over the next couple weeks.
Pick: St. Louis to win –145. 5.80 units to win 4.00.
Minnesota at Texas
The Senators vs. the Senators. MacKenzie Gore is a good pitcher who was supposed to be a great pitcher and has been a fine pitcher.
Pick: Texas to win –149. 5.96 units to win 4.00.
Detroit at Houston
Kai-Wei Teng is an enigma, but the Astros are playing better and getting guys back.
Pick: Houston to win –120. 4.80 units to win 4.00.
Pittsburgh at Sacramento
Jared Jones might be great, but you can’t just expect him to be great the way this line implies.
Pick: Sacramento to win –117. 4.68 units to win 4.00.
Tampa Bay at Los Angeles
A 27-loss team faces a 27-loss team. One trots out Nick Martinez. The other sends Eric Lauer to the mound.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +147. 2.72 units to win 4.00.
NLCS
The Brewers will be involved in the postseason, and there’s a solid chance they get a bye. As we said recently, the more NL leverage we can get, the better. The Dodgers will be expensive until they lose a game in October. And they may still be expensive then.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +650. 2.00 units to win 13.00.
World Series
Similarly, the Mariners will be there, and I do think this is a team you can bet on to improve as the year goes on. They’ve done that enough in recent seasons to provoke belief, and you can trust Jerry Dipoto more than anyone else to make moves.
Pick: Seattle to win +950. 2.00 units to win 19.00.
World Cup
Canada should still have some home-field advantage even if they don’t win their group. As the runner up or third-place finisher, they’d play games on US soil. But there’s a solid chance they win their group. Both they and Bosnia & Herzegovina will have an incentive to draw Switzerland and try to run up the score on Qatar. Canada will have two advantages, though: First, they get to play Qatar first, meaning they’ll know what they need against Switzerland, whereas Bosnia & Herzegovina will have more uncertainty when they play the Swiss. Second, Canada leads Bosnia & Herzegovina so far in tiebreaker F, the fair play score. So, if they and the Bosnians both succeed in parking the bus against Switzerland, they can either win the group by beating Qatar more soundly than Bosnia or by beating Qatar by the same score.
Belgium’s price might be affected by Australia beating Turkey. The Group G runner up plays the Group D runner up in the Round of 32. If Belgium fails to win Group G (unlikely, but possible), they’re now likelier to play Australia than Turkey, which is a big deal.
Pick: Belgium to reach round of 16 –155. 1.00 unit to win 0.65.
Pick: Canada to reach quarterfinals +600. 1.00 unit to win 6.00.
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These numbers are for the 2026–27 effort
2026–27: +/– 0 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: 0% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: zero single-game markets plus zero completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
2025–26: –4% average ROI
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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