We went two for five yesterday on those MLB moneylines. No apologies. Great batting average.
Chicago (AL) at New York (AL)
Davis Martin’s been great, but look at the price we’re getting on the White Sox vs. Gerrit Cole.
Pick: New York to win –138. 5.44 units to win 3.94.
Pittsburgh at Sacramento
We love Mitch Keller, but he’s had command issues and homer issues lately, and Jack Perkins has been way better than his ERA, especially when you account for what ballpark he was in when he pitched against the Brewers.
Pick: Sacramento to win –137. 5.40 units to win 3.94.
NLCS
It might be worthwhile to bet more directly on Dodgers vs. The Field, but for now, we’re going to keep spreading units across these two and the Brewers on days where the prices make sense.
Pick: Atlanta to win +450. 2.00 units to win 9.00.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +900. 2.00 units to win 18.00.
World Cup
We mentioned recently that our one skepticism of Nate Silver’s model concerns the impact of Erling Haaland’s market value on Norway’s team rating. We don’t think the model’s wrong, but we think it might be. So, we’re not taking Norway to go further, even though the implied value there is massive. But we are taking them to move on at least once in the knockout stage.
We’re also taking the USA to reach the quarters. The more days that pass, the more the value’s there. Few teams have looked as impressive in their openers.
Pick: Norway to reach round of 16 –120. 1.00 unit to win 0.83.
Pick: USA to reach quarterfinals +200. 1.00 unit to win 2.00.
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These numbers are for the 2026–27 effort
2026–27: –5.48 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2026–27: –23% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 5 single-game markets plus zero completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
2025–26: –4% average ROI
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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