We’re back. Catching up on World Cup futures and getting back on the baseball horse.
Boston at Colorado
There’s a lot going on here—a chance of storms affecting the game, Sonny Gray’s slight underperformance of (high) expectations so far, Sean Sullivan’s small-sample 10+ ERA, etc. On the whole, you could do worse than rolling the dice with the Rockies tonight.
Pick: Colorado to win +144. 2.69 units to win 3.87.
ALCS
The Tigers are ten games under .500, but they’re also within seven games of leading their division, and they have one of the two best pitchers in the world. We’ve got to have them in our mix.
Pick: Detroit to win +3300. 2.00 units to win 66.00.
NL East
Laying up on this one, but the value does make sense. If we end up seeing an opportunity on the Phillies down the line, we’ll take it, but for now, we’ll make our Atlanta position a little bigger.
Pick: Atlanta to win –350. 2.00 units to win 0.57.
World Cup
The big theme today is Colombia, who should win tonight and might see their futures odds finally adjusted afterwards.
Pick: Uzbekistan to reach knockout stage +400. 1.00 unit to win 4.00.
Pick: Colombia to reach round of 16 –140. 1.00 unit to win 0.71.
Pick: Colombia to reach quarterfinals +215. 1.00 unit to win 2.15.
Pick: Mexico to reach quarterfinals +275. 1.00 unit to win 2.75.
Pick: Switzerland to reach quarterfinals +335. 1.00 unit to win 3.35.
Pick: Colombia to reach semifinals +650. 1.00 unit to win 6.50.
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These first two numbers are for the 2026–27 effort, which runs from the end of the 2026 Stanley Cup Final through the end of the 2027 NBA Finals, Stanley Cup Final, and maybe College World Series? We’ll see what all we’re betting when spring rolls around.
2026–27: –12.68 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2026–27: –19% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 13 single-game markets plus zero completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
2025–26: –4% average ROI
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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