Good work, Seth Lugo.
Cincinnati at New York (AL)
The chronically overestimated Andrew Abbott faces the chronically undervalued Yankees.
Pick: New York to win –198. 7.92 units to win 4.00.
Washington at Tampa Bay
We’re getting the Rays at something FanGraphs implies is a pretty decent price. We see no obvious red flags. When that happens, we tend to take it.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win –117. 4.68 units to win 4.00.
AL Central
José Ramírez is out, Tarik Skubal might get traded, the White Sox are the White Sox, and everyone’s within nine games of each other. I don’t trust these guys either but these are huge numbers given that context.
Pick: Minnesota to win +1100. 2.00 units to win 22.00.
Pick: Kansas City to win +3300. 2.00 units to win 66.00.
World Cup
Curacao can probably move on with one win, and their odds to win each of their two remaining matches are shorter than these advancement odds. Factor in the chance of a win and a tie (which would definitely send them on), and it outweighs the “probably.” Elsewhere, we should start loading up on Argentina, one of the most expensive teams in the field but still cheaper than they should be.
Pick: Argentina to reach final +400. 1.00 unit to win 4.00.
Pick: Curacao to reach knockout stage +2800. 1.00 unit to win 28.00.
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These first two numbers are for the 2026–27 effort, which runs from the end of the 2026 Stanley Cup Final through the end of the 2027 NBA Finals, Stanley Cup Final, and maybe College World Series? We’ll see what all we’re betting when spring rolls around.
2026–27: –0.08 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2026–27: 0% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 11 single-game markets plus zero completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
2025–26: –4% average ROI
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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