You die by the Rockies. You die by the Rockies.
(Repeating this so we remember it.)
Houston at Toronto
Mike Burrows is in the stage of fringe starter where he’s gotten bumped to the bullpen and back again. Trey Yesavage has struggled with the long ball lately, but he’s having a good year overall. Both bullpens are taxed after yesterday. Give us the Blue Jays to get the series win.
Pick: Toronto to win –133. 5.12 units to win 3.85.
AL Central
The Twins are within four and a half games of the division lead at their season’s halfway point. That’s not nothing.
Pick: Minnesota to win +850. 2.00 units to win 17.00.
NLCS
And the Brewers have nearly put away the NL Central, with a bye about a 50/50 possibility.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +625. 2.00 units to win 12.50.
World Cup
We still really like the value on Canada to the quarters specifically, with our working theory being that oddsmakers are either underestimating home-field advantage, underestimating the probability Canada wins the group (all they need is a tie), or underestimating both. We also like Brazil at this price. They’re Brazil! They’re good! Easy to overrate but also a little easy to overlook with so much star power concentrated elsewhere in this era.
Pick: Brazil to reach semifinals +350. 1.00 unit to win 3.50.
Pick: Canada to reach quarterfinals +450. 1.00 unit to win 4.50.
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These first two numbers are for the 2026–27 effort, which runs from the end of the 2026 Stanley Cup Final through the end of the 2027 NBA Finals, Stanley Cup Final, and maybe College World Series? We’ll see what all we’re betting when spring rolls around.
2026–27: –15.37 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2026–27: –22% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 14 single-game markets plus zero completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
2025–26: –4% average ROI
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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