All kinds of stuff today: The MLB moneyline markets, MLB futures (because we missed those two days this week), NBA futures, and NHL futures. One piece of context: Back in October, we started an NHL futures portfolio we abandoned. That lost two units on division futures, but it did give us each of Utah and Montreal at 25-to-1 to win their respective conference finals. So, we’re off to a good start.
On with it.
Cincinnati at Minnesota
Andrew Abbott’s correct that he’s been unlucky so far this year. His 5.85 ERA is bad, but his 4.71/4.45 xERA/FIP split is more meaningful, and it’s better. What Abbott (understandably) leaves out is that over his career, he’s been a lucky, lucky dude. He’s got a 4.27 career FIP and a 3.83 career xERA but a 3.53 career ERA. He’s not going to be as bad as his results so far imply (though the strikeout numbers are concerning), but regression was eventually going to come.
Pick: Minnesota to win –130. 11.70 units to win 9.00.
NL East
There’s value on these guys all over the place. They’re back, and the market hasn’t put that together.
Pick: Atlanta to win +125. 2.00 units to win 2.50.
ALCS
Value here too. The idea with these guys is that the Astros are probably still overestimated, but it’s more fun to think about the deGrom angle: What if he’s healthy in October?
Pick: Texas to win +950. 2.00 units to win 19.00.
NBA Finals
We’ll probably start diversifying tomorrow, but for now, the best combination of value and probability is still on the Celtics. They’re going to be the anchor for this portfolio.
Pick: Boston to win +550. 1.00 unit to win 5.50.
NBA Eastern Conference
This is especially urgent, since they could conceivably be the odds-on favorite soon if things break a certain way.
Pick: Boston to win +160. 1.00 unit to win 1.60.
Stanley Cup
Something Gelo (our NHL model) captures well, in my opinion, is hockey’s streakiness. It sees the Flyers as undervalued this round, but that undervaluing multiplies as the postseason goes on. If these guys do beat the Penguins, there’s a better chance than markets imply that they hang with the Hurricanes or Senators. If they pull off the upset there, they’re probably going to be close to on par with whoever gets out of the Atlantic side of the bracket. Win that, and unless they play the Avalanche, they could be Stanley Cup favorites.
We’re not saying this will happen. But 80-to-1 is wild, especially given they’re only 22-to-1 underdogs to win the Eastern Conference Finals.
As for the Sens? Our model doesn’t really disagree with their first round price, but the same context applies. Gelo views five of the six best teams right now as Eastern Conference squads. It doesn’t make sense that the Sens are priced at 7-to-1 to win the East but then a full 18-to-1 to win the Stanley Cup. If they do win the East, they’ll more likely than not be the favorites.
Pick: Ottawa to win +1800. 1.00 unit to win 18.00.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +8000. 1.00 unit to win 80.00.
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These numbers are for the 2025–26 effort, which is currently scheduled to end at the end of the NBA Finals or Stanley Cup Final (whichever comes second). Sorry for the poor transparency. We’ll do a better job tracking the 2026–27 campaign, which is already underway with our MLB futures portfolio.
2025–26: –687.92 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,123 single-game markets plus seven completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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