We’re back. Good work by the Braves on Wednesday.
Atlanta at Philadelphia
The market’s catching up to Atlanta, but not quickly enough. Taijuan Walker’s struggles aren’t as damning as they feel to Phillies fans, but they’re real.
Pick: Atlanta to win –107. 9.96 units to win 9.31.
Cincinnati at Minnesota
The market’s catching up to the Twins, but in this case it’s underrating the significance of Brandon Williamson having to face Joe Ryan.
Pick: Minnesota to win –166. 15.45 units to win 9.31.
World Series
The Tigers have edged into positive EV here, and we don’t have anything elsewhere on the Tigers. The ace factor should only help them in October.
Pick: Detroit to win +2000. 2.00 units to win 40.00.
AL East
The Rays do have the worst roster on paper in the AL East, but three important caveats:
1. They still have a roster on par with the middle of the major leagues.
2. The Rays have a reputation for outperforming their on-paper roster strength.
3. They currently lead the AL East, with about an eighth of the season over.
10-to-1 is too long.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +1000. 2.00 units to win 20.00.
NBA Finals
Running it back today. Nothing we like this much that’s related to the play-in.
Pick: Boston to win +550. 1.00 unit to win 5.50.
Eastern Conference
Running it back today. Nothing we like this much that’s related to the play-in.
Pick: Boston to win +160. 1.00 unit to win 1.60.
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These numbers are for the 2025–26 effort, which is currently scheduled to end at the end of the NBA Finals or Stanley Cup Final (whichever comes second). Sorry for the poor transparency. We’ll do a better job tracking the 2026–27 campaign, which is already underway with our MLB futures portfolio.
2025–26: –681.78 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,122 single-game markets plus seven completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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