We’re going to double up on futures today, and then be back on track with all three active portfolios: MLB (five days a week), NBA (seven days a week), and NHL (seven days a week).
Atlanta at Washington
Bryce Elder keeps pitching well, and the Nationals are probably being buoyed a little bit by the Phillies’ and Mets’ struggles. 10–12 doesn’t look that bad compared to those two. The Nats’ roster is rough.
Pick: Atlanta to win –148. 12.45 units to win 8.41.
AL East
I don’t know if the Yankees are going to run away with the East, but there’s always that chance. Good value for now, might be great value in a couple weeks.
Pick: New York to win –120. 2.00 units to win 1.67.
AL Central
The Tigers have pulled it together and markets aren’t quite there yet. Hard to account for the Guardians given their history of overperforming reasonable expectations.
Pick: Detroit to win +110. 2.00 units to win 2.20.
NLCS
There’s a real chance the Phillies and Mets both don’t pull it together. Call it 1-in-6 or so. If that happens, there are going to be some weird teams in the Wild Card Series.
Pick: St. Louis to win +15000. 2.00 units to win 300.00.
ALCS
It’s not going great, but no one in the AL West is above .500.
Pick: Seattle to win +550. 2.00 units to win 11.00.
NBA Finals
The Celtics’ odds have gotten longer, so we’re going to keep putting units down on them. They should maybe be favored over the field to win the East, and 6-to-1 is going to look extraordinarily long if that happens.
Pick: Boston to win +600. 2.00 units to win 12.00.
Western Conference
In the West, the market’s probably overvaluing the Spurs a little bit, which is leading to the Nuggets value. With the Lakers, this is mostly not conspiratorial (Luka Dončić is a very good basketball player who can make an abnormal difference in a seven-game series) but also a little conspiratorial (would the NBA prefer more Thunder or a Lakers run to the Finals). I’m not someone who thinks the NBA rigs games, but there’s enough evidence they put their thumb on the scale to make 55-to-1 extra enticing.
Pick: Denver to win +700. 1.00 unit to win 7.00.
Pick: LA Lakers to win +5500. 1.00 unit to win 55.00.
Stanley Cup
There are two phenomena at play here:
First, while the market’s priced fine enough in the West, it’s overrating the strength of whoever wins the West when the Stanley Cup Finals arrive. Yes, if anyone knocks off the Avalanche they’ll turn out to be a better team than we think they are right now. But not by this much. There’s value on a ton of teams in the East.
Second, the Lightning are not invincible. Far from it.
This leaves us with futures on six Eastern Conference teams. Everyone but the Lightning and Penguins.
Pick: Carolina to win +450. 1.00 unit to win 4.50.
Pick: Buffalo to win +1200. 1.00 unit to win 12.00.
Pick: Boston to win +6600. 1.00 unit to win 66.00.
Western Conference
That said about the West being priced fine enough, we do see some value here. We’re now in on the Mammoth and the Wild on this side of the bracket. Wish it was the Mammoths, but oh well. Branding’s gonna brand, for worse.
Pick: Minnesota to win +600. 1.00 unit to win 6.00.
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These numbers are for the 2025–26 effort, which is currently scheduled to end at the end of the NBA Finals or Stanley Cup Final (whichever comes second). Sorry for the poor transparency. We’ll do a better job tracking the 2026–27 campaign, which is already underway with our MLB futures portfolio.
2025–26: –699.62 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,124 single-game markets plus seven completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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