Apologies for the unannounced, unintended weekend absence. Not looking at the MLB moneylines today, and we’ll have to double up on MLB futures tomorrow, but we’ll triple up on our NBA and NHL futures today to get those caught up.
Eastern Conference
I don’t know if we’ll keep putting more on the Celtics or not. Of the 24 units we’ve placed so far, 19 have been on Boston. Part of the reason for that’s been timing. Very soon, the Celtics will be odds-on favorites to win the East. Once that happens, it gets expensive fast.
So, six more on the Celtics. Tomorrow, we’ll start zooming out again.
Pick: Boston to win +105. 6.00 units to win 6.30.
Eastern Conference
Our NHL portfolio is more diversified than our NBA one. In the West, we’ve got longshots open on the Ducks, Mammoth, and Wild each to win the conference, but we don’t have much invested. (We also have a little bit on the Stars at a more expensive price.) In the East, we have longshots open on the Flyers, Canadiens, and Bruins (that one’s doomed), plus a growing collection of Hurricanes Stanley Cup futures which we’ll add to below. Basically, we’re skeptical of the Avalanche and we’re not Lightning believers, with the Lightning our more present concern.
If Montreal manages to knock out Tampa Bay, great. Similarly, if the Flyers sneak past the Hurricanes, great! But if they don’t, this will give us leverage in a Sabres/Lightning matchup, while…
Pick: Buffalo to win +450. 3.00 units to win 13.50.
Stanley Cup
…this will give us leverage if the Canes play the Lightning.
More, of course, to come tomorrow. We’re working on the futures model we sometimes build to tell us our first quartile outcome, median outcome, mean, etc., plus profit probability.
Pick: Carolina to win +350. 3.00 units to win 10.50.
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These numbers are for the 2025–26 effort, which is currently scheduled to end at the end of the NBA Finals or Stanley Cup Final (whichever comes second). Sorry for the poor transparency. We’ll do a better job tracking the 2026–27 campaign, which is already underway with our MLB futures portfolio.
2025–26: –678.13 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,129 single-game markets plus seven completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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