Ahoy! No bets tomorrow. I’m not sure whether there’ll be bets Saturday and/or Sunday. So, we’re going to quadruple up on NHL futures, quadruple up on NBA futures, and pentuple up on MLB futures. That’ll leave us good through tomorrow on both the NBA and the NHL and good through Sunday on MLB. Next week should be more normal.
NL West
This is really boring, but given how hard it is to get value on the Dodgers in any form, this is the kind of thing we need to do more of this year. Last year, the Blue Jays made it work for us by pushing LA to the brink. If they’d gone out more like the Yankees, it would’ve been two gut shots in two years. I wouldn’t say we got lucky, but the unlucky scenario was too real and too devastating to take lightly.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –1000. 20.00 units to win 2.00.
NBA Finals
The price here seems likely to drop fast once the Knicks do eliminate the Hawks, assuming that’s what happens. We’ll want something on them, given how Celtics-reliant we currently are.
Pick: New York to win +2800. 1.00 unit to win 28.00.
Eastern Conference
Same story here. And with the Celtics series only 3–2 and Game 6 in Philadelphia, there’s a real chance Boston does get upset, which would make this both necessary to us and valuable.
Pick: New York to win +500. 2.00 units to win 10.00.
Western Conference
In the West, it looks like we’ll be able to get decent prices on OKC, because OKC will probably play the Lakers in the second round and the conspiracy theories will start. (We have the Lakers at 55-to-1 to win the West, so we’re set if the Lakers do upset the Thunder.) The price is going to be so expensive, however, that it’ll take time to stock up. So we’re starting now.
Elsewhere, we just can’t pass up the Wolves at 150-to-1. Obviously, the Ayo Dosunmu injury is impactful, especially on top of everything else, but with none of their injuries season-ending, the team’s potential is still as high as almost anyone in the league. Get through Denver and catch a break, and they’re a contender. That’s not 150-to-1 unlikely.
Pick: Oklahoma City to win –200. 4.00 units to win 2.00.
Pick: Minnesota to win +15000. 1.00 unit to win 150.00.
Stanley Cup
We’re not seeing anything close to positive EV on the Lightning, who remain our biggest threat. The same is true of the Oilers, who probably aren’t a threat but do play in the Pacific corner of the bracket, which makes everyone a threat. The Knights are a more serious threat in that corner, and they’re close to positive EV in the Western Conference market but they’re not quite there. Thankfully, if the Oilers do win, there’s a good chance we get good value on the Avalanche and Knights, while if the Ducks finish the job, we’ll have our 33-to-1 WCF bet on them as leverage. So, more spreading around on our Eastern Conference horses. Nice that the Bruins are still available this cheap. We don’t really think they’ll do it, but there’s no opportunity cost to grabbing them now.
Preferences tonight are the Wild (our other useful longshot in the West) and Anaheim. Preferences tomorrow are the Canadiens, the Mammoth, and probably the Sabres but maybe the Bruins. We’d have to run the numbers on that one, but ultimately it would depend on what happens in Tampa Bay vs. Montreal.
Pick: Carolina to win +285. 4.00 units to win 11.40.
Pick: Buffalo to win +1000. 1.00 unit to win 10.00.
Pick: Montreal to win +1400. 1.00 unit to win 14.00.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +2800. 1.00 unit to win 28.00.
Pick: Boston to win +12500. 1.00 unit to win 125.00.
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These numbers are for the 2025–26 effort, which is currently scheduled to end at the end of the NBA Finals or Stanley Cup Final (whichever comes second). Sorry for the poor transparency. We’ll do a better job tracking the 2026–27 campaign, which is already underway with our MLB futures portfolio.
2025–26: –678.13 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,129 single-game markets plus seven completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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