Nice stuff from South Africa last night. Was getting worried about a Round of 32 0-fer for our World Cup portfolio. We’ll update that stage of the tracker once all our teams’ fates are finalized.
Sacramento at San Francisco
It’s weird to see the Giants favored, but that’s part of why the value’s good. They should be favored by more. Landon Roupp’s been that guy for them, and they’re not at a bullpen availability disadvantage.
Pick: San Francisco to win –128. 4.86 units to win 3.80.
AL East
Laying up today.
Pick: New York to win –450. 4.00 units to win 0.89.
World Cup
More on Argentina, more on Norway. We couldn’t hold out on those guys forever.
Pick: Argentina to reach semifinals +120. 1.00 unit to win 1.20.
Pick: Norway to reach semifinals +500. 1.00 unit to win 5.00.
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These first two numbers are for the 2026–27 effort, which runs from the end of the 2026 Stanley Cup Final through the end of the 2027 NBA Finals, Stanley Cup Final, and maybe College World Series? We’ll see what all we’re betting when spring rolls around.
2026–27: –20.49 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2026–27: –27% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 15 single-game markets plus zero completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
2025–26: –4% average ROI
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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