We’re not worried about the Celtics.
But we are very worried about our MLB moneylines.
Atlanta at Washington
I know. We keep doing the same thing. But this is the thing among those things that’s worked the best, and Zack Littell has a 7.47/7.40 xERA/FIP split.
Pick: Atlanta to win –145. 11.71 units to win 8.08.
NL West
This is boring but valuable. Great start by the Padres, but the Dodgers are right there with them and are projected to finish 15 games clear of second place (per FanGraphs). We’ll take a 10% return, especially with it so hard to ever get Dodgers value in postseason markets.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –1000. 4.00 units to win 0.40.
NBA Finals
It’s not great that the Celtics lost to the Sixers at home, but we do still think they make it through the East.
That said.
Not bad odds on Cleveland right now.
It’s all about leverage and hoping the Thunder somehow go down.
Pick: Boston to win +650. 1.00 unit to win 6.50.
Pick: Cleveland to win +1500. 1.00 unit to win 15.00.
Western Conference
Over in the hockey world, we’re going to add a little breadth to the Western Conference side of our portfolio. We now have at least something on all three of Utah, Minnesota, and Dallas. Lot of longshots.
Pick: Dallas to win +700. 1.00 unit to win 7.00.
Stanley Cup
In the East, the Hurricanes are popping as a positive-EV Stanley Cup play, so we’ll add a second unit on them. Our model really is not sold on the Lightning. So close last night to a breakthrough there on getting them out of the picture.
Pick: Carolina to win +400. 1.00 unit to win 4.00.
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These numbers are for the 2025–26 effort, which is currently scheduled to end at the end of the NBA Finals or Stanley Cup Final (whichever comes second). Sorry for the poor transparency. We’ll do a better job tracking the 2026–27 campaign, which is already underway with our MLB futures portfolio.
2025–26: –702.74 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,126 single-game markets plus seven completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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