Good work by the Braves last night. Bad work by the Nuggets.
Atlanta at Washington
The line’s longer than we’d expect on Atlanta again. This time makes more sense, because Ronald Acuña Jr. might sit, but it’s still too long.
Pick: Atlanta to win –135. 11.53 units to win 8.54.
ALCS
There’s value on the A’s, and we don’t have anything on them yet. They lead the AL West and the Astros are overvalued.
Pick: Sacramento to win +3300. 2.00 units to win 66.00.
AL East
This is our second on the Yankees to win the AL East, but it’s necessary to make them a profitable outcome within that market.
Pick: New York to win –125. 2.00 units to win 1.60.
Western Conference
The Timberwolves’ odds didn’t move enough after last night. They’re a factor in this series, and even that’s enough to make 45-to-1 too long.
Pick: Minnesota to win +4500. 1.00 unit to win 45.00.
NBA Finals
Across the bracket, we’re still putting money into the Celtics. Eventually, we’ll have to get some hedges in there, but for now, it’s about building the leverage as large as possible. We need to be wary, but it’s hard to see them losing before the conference finals.
Pick: Boston to win +600. 1.00 unit to win 6.00.
Stanley Cup
The markets like the Lightning a lot more than our model does. In some ways, that makes sense. Their roster is better than their recent performance. In other ways…Victor Hedman’s still out? I know the Canadiens have their own stuff they’re working through, but this is extreme. We’re going to put a second unit on Montreal, this time in the Stanley Cup market.
Pick: Montreal to win +2500. 1.00 unit to win 25.00.
Eastern Conference
In the Eastern Conference market, we’re putting a second unit on the Flyers. They lead 2–0 with the series heading to Philly. The Hurricanes are playing better than anybody else right now, but the Flyers aren’t far off the Sabres, Canadiens, and Lightning. At the very least, this should give us leverage heading into the conference semifinals.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +1100. 1.00 unit to win 11.00.
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These numbers are for the 2025–26 effort, which is currently scheduled to end at the end of the NBA Finals or Stanley Cup Final (whichever comes second). Sorry for the poor transparency. We’ll do a better job tracking the 2026–27 campaign, which is already underway with our MLB futures portfolio.
2025–26: –691.21 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,125 single-game markets plus seven completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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