Can’t keep us away for long! Updates:
- Nice little 3–0 night on Friday for the MLB moneylines. Those are generally going a little better than even, but we liked a lot of lines today, so we’ll see.
- The NHL futures portfolio is pretty clear in its preferences: Sabres/Canadiens, then Hurricanes, then Knights, then Avalanche. Tripling up on that today but not expecting the pecking order to change—only expecting changes in how much better some scenarios would be than others.
- The NBA futures portfolio’s more complicated. Our best outcome is Knicks over Thunder, but part of the reason we’ve leaned so hard into that is the leverage piece of the equation. We can’t get good odds on the Thunder to win it all, so we’ve been grabbing them to win the West and taking the Knicks to win the Finals, thinking we’ll hedge when the time comes. Relatedly: The Spurs beating the Thunder wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, because they’re probably at least a slightly less difficult Finals matchup for New York. Tripling up on this today as well.
- The MLB futures portfolio is business as usual.
Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Shane McClanahan’s been consistent since his return. The Rays have the best record in baseball. Don’t overthink this.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win –133. 9.46 units to win 7.11.
New York (NL) at Washington
Christian Scott isn’t eating innings or anything, but he’s been good enough that fears of Mets-ism and a post-Subway Series letdown are leaking too much into this line.
Pick: New York to win –132. 9.39 units to win 7.11.
Toronto at New York (AL)
Patrick Corbin’s allowing a lot of hard contact. Ryan Weathers has been solid.
Pick: New York to win –163. 11.59 units to win 7.11.
Los Angeles at San Diego
Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s having trouble with the long ball. That’s an area where Petco Park is uncharacteristically unfriendly to pitchers.
Pick: San Diego to win +130. 5.47 units to win 7.11.
Chicago (AL) at Seattle
Noah Schultz might be fading. Two bad starts in a row, and now he squares off with Bryan Woo, who appears to have settled back in after those two rough outings against the Missouri teams.
Pick: Seattle to win –155. 11.02 units to win 7.11.
NL Central
The Brewers have pulled even with the Cubs in the loss column ahead of a series this week at Wrigley. There’s a pretty wide gap in their pricing across the market. We’ll get this while we can.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +260. 4.00 units to win 10.40.
NBA Finals
Running the ball here. We have to think the price will be more expensive if it really is a Knicks–Thunder Finals. As it stands, in that scenario we’d enter the series up 8.60 units with effectively a 34-unit, +532 bet on the Knicks. That isn’t exactly a flexible situation, but it’s solid from a leverage perspective.
Pick: New York to win +550. 6.00 units to win 33.00.
Stanley Cup
The value’s bigger on the Sabres, but with them already our best-case scenario, we’ll load up a little more on the Canes. Who knows if they’ll still be valuable tomorrow.
Pick: Carolina to win +175. 6.00 units to win 10.50.
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These numbers are for the 2025–26 effort, which is currently scheduled to end at the end of the NBA Finals or Stanley Cup Final (whichever comes second). Sorry for the poor transparency. We’ll do a better job tracking the 2026–27 campaign, which is already underway with our MLB futures portfolio.
2025–26: –650.95 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,145 single-game markets plus seven completed futures portfolios and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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