We had a great little 5–0 night on the MLB moneylines on Monday. Then, things got away from us yesterday and we no-showed. Argh.
Houston at Minnesota
Joe Ryan’s turned in two quality starts since the injury scare. I think he’s ok.
Pick: Minnesota to win –145. 10.99 units to win 7.58.
Atlanta at Miami
Chris Sale is otherworldly, but Janson Junk tends to hold his own, and Sale might have some ERA regression coming. It’ll regress to a good place, but he hasn’t pitched quite as well as that number implies.
Pick: Miami to win +170. 4.46 units to win 7.58.
ALCS
Let’s pause, for a moment, and appreciate how funny it would be if the standings held and the AL division winners were the Rays, Guardians, and A’s right before MLB owners forced a labor stoppage over demands for a salary cap. Those damned big-market teams screwing up the competitive balance!
Pick: Cleveland to win +1300. 2.00 units to win 26.00.
World Series
Then, what if the Brewers met one of those teams in the World Series? At that point, maybe a salary cap really would be necessary. To save big-market teams from themselves.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +2800. 2.00 units to win 56.00.
Pick: Cleveland to win +4000. 2.00 units to win 80.00.
Pick: Arizona to win +10000. 2.00 units to win 200.00.
Western Conference
We’ve been pretty big Spurs doubters, and it’s not like they dominated Oklahoma City on Monday night. The head-to-head record is interesting, though, and there’s an echo of last year’s Finals here. There too, the Thunder fell behind 1–0, and the market didn’t take it seriously. Ultimately, the market was proved correct-ish. The Thunder did win. But the Pacers would eventually push OKC to the brink. Game 1 said more about future games than the market implied. And had Tyrese Haliburton not torn his Achilles seven minutes into Game 7, the Thunder might not have won.
Maybe I’m overreacting here, but I’m wondering if the Thunder aren’t as good in the playoffs as they are in the regular season. In hindsight, their path last year looks pretty easy, and they still had to survive Game 7 twice to get the job done.
This puts us in a hole no matter who wins the Western Conference Finals, and if the Spurs win, we’ll be down on net heading into the Finals (even if the Knicks do beat the Cavs). But it gets the Spurs on our board, and I’m thinking we need that.
Pick: San Antonio to win +103. 4.00 units to win 4.12.
Stanley Cup
It just really looks like markets are overestimating the Western Conference. This gets us to a spot where we’d effectively have a 60.82-unit bet on the Hurricanes paying 41.23 or a 34.82-unit bet on the Canadiens paying 48.18. Go Knights tonight. We don’t have units on either of them and the Avalanche, but it’d sure make us feel better if Vegas at least made a series of it.
Pick: Carolina to win +175. 3.00 units to win 5.25.
Pick: Montreal to win +700. 1.00 unit to win 7.00.
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These numbers are for the 2025–26 effort, which is currently scheduled to end at the end of the NBA Finals or Stanley Cup Final (whichever comes second). Sorry for the poor transparency. We’ll do a better job tracking the 2026–27 campaign, which is already underway with our MLB futures portfolio.
2025–26: –615.40 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,150 single-game markets plus seven completed futures portfolios and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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