Good stuff across the board yesterday. Although we would have preferred the Sabres to win. And the Ducks/Knights game technically didn’t break in our favor. So really, good stuff from the Reds yesterday.
Boston at Atlanta
Spencer Strider looked great in his second start back, and the Red Sox are not yet surging.
Pick: Atlanta to win –147. 9.59 units to win 6.52.
Texas at Houston
The Astros aren’t playing well, but they’re at least mostly competitive. Spencer Arrighetti’s been good, too.
Pick: Houston to win –105. 6.85 units to win 6.52.
San Francisco at Sacramento
I’m not the most up-to-date on the Sacramento ballpark factor, but whatever it is, Aaron Civale seems to be navigating it just fine. He’s got a 3.62 FIP so far at home.
Pick: Sacramento to win –130. 8.48 units to win 6.52.
World Series
The AL is bad, and that creates opportunities at both its poles. On one side, the Yankees are almost 100% likely to earn a bye to the Division Series, coupled with home-field advantage. On the other, FanGraphs currently has the Twins with a 1-in-4 shot to make the playoffs, and about a 1-in-6 shot to have home field advantage in the Wild Card Series if they don’t also get a bye, which is a real possibility. It’s rare to see teams in the playoffs with only a 1-in-31.5 World Series chance, which is what these odds imply. We’ll take them.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +550. 2.00 units to win 11.00.
Pick: Minnesota to win +12500. 2.00 units to win 250.00.
Western Conference
This is enough to make the Thunder a profitable outcome for us in the West. We’ll take that. A Wolves win tonight would be massive, but we’ll take that.
Pick: Oklahoma City to win –275. 2.00 units to win 0.73.
Stanley Cup
Based on how overvalued the Knights have been in the Western Conference market, we opened the books today expecting to have value on the Avalanche. No such luck. Instead, it’s more Hurricanes, as we continue to load up on whoever wins the Eastern Conference, home to four of the five best teams in hockey.
Pick: Carolina to win +170. 2.00 units to win 3.40.
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These numbers are for the 2025–26 effort, which is currently scheduled to end at the end of the NBA Finals or Stanley Cup Final (whichever comes second). Sorry for the poor transparency. We’ll do a better job tracking the 2026–27 campaign, which is already underway with our MLB futures portfolio.
2025–26: –670.51 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,142 single-game markets plus seven completed futures portfolios and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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