We’re letting the NHL and NBA futures ride again (got a nice payout coming if the Knicks can close this out), and we’re catching up on the World Cup futures.
Houston at Kansas City
Noah Cameron vs. Mike Burrows.
Pick: Kansas City to win –123. 6.15 units to win 5.00.
NLCS
In the Bloated Playoffs era, 200-to-1 on a .500 team is worth a look in mid-June. In the same vein, 40-to-1 is worth a look when the team’s roster is strong enough.
Pick: New York to win +4000. 2.00 units to win 80.00.
Pick: Miami to win +20000. 2.00 units to win 400.00.
World Cup
In order:
- Messi’s aging, and there’s reason to worry that Nate Silver’s model (which we trust a lot) is inflating his value because it uses player market value and a disproportional share of Messi’s comes from his fame rather than his ability, but we do think Silver’s model is probably accurately capturing an undervaluing of South American teams, and Argentina is either the best of those or the second-best. They’re a contender, and we’re happy to have them in our portfolio.
- Senegal’s loaded with talent and just won AFCON. Not a bad longshot.
- Turkey is probably underpriced because of reactions to the USA’s win over Paraguay. It was impressive, but World Cup expansion makes performances like that easier.
- Haiti’s priced at something like 5-to-1 to beat Scotland tonight. Do that or upset Morocco (comparably likely), and they’re probably moving on. Like Senegal, not a bad longshot, and to answer the obvious question, we categorize this as a longshot and Argentina as not–a–longshot because we put a lot of weight on leverage. Argentina is likelier to lose the World Cup than Haiti is to advance from group stage, but Argentina is likelier to get us leverage than Haiti is. Haiti will probably lose all three of its games.
Pick: Argentina to win World Cup +1100. 1.00 unit to win 11.00.
Pick: Senegal to reach semifinals +2200. 1.00 unit to win 22.00.
Pick: Turkey to reach round of 16 +120. 1.00 unit to win 1.20.
Pick: Haiti to reach round of 32 +612. 1.00 unit to win 6.12.
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These numbers are for the 2025–26 effort, which is currently scheduled to end at the end of the NBA Finals or Stanley Cup Final (whichever comes second). We’ll track the 2026–27 campaign in more detail when it’s fully underway (it’s partly underway right now with our MLB futures and World Cup futures portfolios).
2025–26: –689.29 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,171 single-game markets plus seven completed futures portfolios and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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