Great stuff from the Knicks last night. We’ll let the NHL and NBA futures ride again. Go Canes. Our World Cup futures portfolio (100 units) starts today, but like the MLB futures, it’s part of the 2026–27 campaign.
Minnesota at Detroit
Keider Montero’s been a stalwart for the Tigers, who enter this rubber match with a fresh back end of the bullpen.
Pick: Detroit to win –125. 6.07 units to win 4.86.
ALCS
More on this today. It’s at the sweet spot of value and probability.
Pick: Seattle to win +435. 2.00 units to win 8.70.
NLCS
Same story here. Our rudimentary simulator (doesn’t correlate division results with postseason results, but that’s the only major grain of salt) says our current assortment is 65% likely to profit. Most of the other 35% is Dodgers. Taking value on these guys, the Brewers, and the Phillies is probably going to be the course as we try to establish leverage.
Pick: Atlanta to win +425. 2.00 units to win 8.50.
World Cup
We’re leaning heavily on Nate Silver’s model here (we highly recommend it), with our approach today to pick the highest-EV available plays 1) on a team playing today and 2) overall. Mexico’s likeliest path involves a matchup with England in the round of 16. Obviously, a lot can go wrong between now and then, and that’s priced in, but it works both ways. In the median scenario—the one where Mexico and England do match up in that game—we’ll be pretty happy with Mexico at +275 in Mexico City in July.
As for Colombia: Only Portugal is a serious competitor within their group, and there’s reason to believe Western Hemisphere factors like heat and the Colombian diaspora will help them in the knockout stage. 55-to-1 is a long price for a team who finished tied with Brazil in qualification.
Pick: Mexico to reach quarterfinals +275. 1.00 unit to win 2.75.
Pick: Colombia to win World Cup +5500. 1.00 unit to win 55.00.
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These numbers are for the 2025–26 effort, which is currently scheduled to end at the end of the NBA Finals or Stanley Cup Final (whichever comes second). We’ll track the 2026–27 campaign in more detail when it’s fully underway (it’s partly underway right now with our MLB futures and World Cup futures portfolios).
2025–26: –694.15 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,170 single-game markets plus seven completed futures portfolios and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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