Lost with two big favorites last night on the diamond, which is the opposite of what we were trying to do. Thankfully, the Golden Knights.
Houston at Chicago (NL)
Kai-Wei Teng is coming off five scoreless innings against the Rangers. Colin Rea has a 5.31 xERA. The Cubs have shown signs under Craig Counsell (and predating him) of being a team who lets momentum get to them.
Pick: Houston to win +131. 4.76 units to win 6.24.
Pittsburgh at Toronto
The Blue Jays are playing better, but they aren’t exactly hot. This is Paul Skenes vs. Patrick Corbin.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win –155. 9.68 units to win 6.25.
Chicago (AL) at San Francisco
Yes, Erick Fedde is bad. But every projection system knows he’s bad, and he’s arguably had some bad home run luck. Oracle Park is the best place to pitch in baseball if you’re trying to keep the ball in the yard.
Pick: Chicago to win +100. 6.24 units to win 6.24.
New York (NL) at Miami
We will take the Mets as an underdog against the Marlins.
Pick: New York to win +103. 6.06 units to win 6.24.
Seattle at Kansas City
We are Stephen Kolek respecters, but the Royals can’t score against anybody, let alone George Kirby.
Pick: Seattle to win –121. 7.55 units to win 6.24.
NBA Finals
This is the only future where we’re seeing positive value right now. We’ll eventually need to hedge, but it’s too early to tell whether that’ll mean betting on the Thunder or betting on the Spurs.
Pick: New York to win +400. 2.00 units to win 8.00.
Stanley Cup
Our model has the Canadiens as narrow Stanley Cup favorites. Markets decidedly don’t. We may be wrong, but the Hurricanes’ history of losing against Atlantic Division teams, the Atlantic Division’s regular season superiority (the Avs/Stars/Wild got to play a lot of games against the Canucks, Blackhawks, etc.), and the fact the Knights lost more regular season games than they won has us bullish on Montreal. Bullish enough to put a few more chips in this particular pot.
Pick: Montreal to win +350. 2.00 units to win 7.00.
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These numbers are for the 2025–26 effort, which is currently scheduled to end at the end of the NBA Finals or Stanley Cup Final (whichever comes second). Sorry for the poor transparency. We’ll do a better job tracking the 2026–27 campaign, which is already underway with our MLB futures portfolio.
2025–26: –647.93 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,155 single-game markets plus seven completed futures portfolios and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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