Tough loss for our Angels last night, but great stuff from our Habs and our Knicks.
Cleveland at Philadelphia
Cristopher Sánchez has thrown 24 innings over his last three starts, striking out 30, walking 1, and allowing 0 runs.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –168. 12.05 units to win 7.17.
Colorado at Arizona
Michael Soroka’s 2.96 FIP is even better than the 3.45 he managed in Atlanta in 2019. Even away from Coors Field (4 starts, 21 innings), Tomoyuki Sugano has a 6.62 FIP.
Pick: Arizona to win –208. 14.92 units to win 7.17.
AL Central
I don’t think you have to take the White Sox seriously yet in a season-long sense. They are who they are, and this is feeling a lot like 2015 and 2016, when they drank their own Kool-Aid instead of trusting realistic projections. In the micro sense? Yes, they’re playing well right now. But we’re not worried about them winning the AL Central.
Also, it sounds like Tarik Skubal’s going to come back way earlier than anticipated. We’ll see what happens from there, but that’s a huge deal.
Pick: Cleveland to win –155. 2.00 units to win 1.29.
Pick: Detroit to win +800. 2.00 units to win 16.00.
Western Conference
The injury situation is very much worth monitoring here, but at the moment, this is good value. The Spurs are favorites tonight, after all, and they’ll probably be favorites in Game 4 too.
Pick: San Antonio to win +150. 2.00 units to win 3.00.
Western Conference
This is probably not going to be positive-value after tonight’s game. The Avalanche will probably take Game 2 and even the series. But the chance the Knights win tonight is large enough that we have to take this anyway. Because if they do win, the series is firmly in their favor.
Pick: Vegas to win +111. 2.00 units to win 2.22.
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These numbers are for the 2025–26 effort, which is currently scheduled to end at the end of the NBA Finals or Stanley Cup Final (whichever comes second). Sorry for the poor transparency. We’ll do a better job tracking the 2026–27 campaign, which is already underway with our MLB futures portfolio.
2025–26: –620.96 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,153 single-game markets plus seven completed futures portfolios and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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