NIT Bubble Watch – March 8th, 2023

Virginia Tech avoided mayhem, Charleston bit the dust, and we missed out on Oral Roberts.

You take the good with the bad in these parts. That’s kind of the point.

Let’s hit it.

Helpful links:

  • NIT Bracketology: Our latest projection of the eventual field, from just moments ago.
  • NIT Bracketology Rundown: First Four Out, Next Four Out, and assorted complications.
  • NIT Bubble Watch: This page will help guide you to the most recent Bubble Watch, in case you’re viewing one from a previous day.
  • NIT Blog Posts: This will take you to every blog post talking NIT, a collection which includes our daily previews of the action at hand, usually published shortly after this.

Conference by conference:

ACC

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High): UNC, Pitt, NC State
  • Sweet Spot: Clemson
  • In the Mix (Low): Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Virginia Tech did the thing where they won by about the margin everyone expected. Maybe a little closer, but a few points is a few points.

Where does that leave them?

Exactly where they were.

That’s what meeting expectations does for a team.

Big Ten

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High): Rutgers, Wisconsin, Penn State, Illinois, Iowa
  • Sweet Spot: Michigan
  • In the Mix (Low): Nebraska

Big 12

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High): Oklahoma State, West Virginia
  • Sweet Spot: Texas Tech
  • In the Mix (Low): Oklahoma

SEC

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High): Mississippi State, Auburn, Arkansas
  • Sweet Spot: Florida, Vanderbilt
  • In the Mix (Low):

Big East

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High): Providence
  • Sweet Spot: Seton Hall
  • In the Mix (Low): Villanova, St. John’s

Pac-12

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High): Arizona State, USC
  • Sweet Spot: Oregon, Washington State
  • In the Mix (Low): Colorado, Utah, Washington

Mountain West

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High): Nevada, Utah State, Boise State
  • Sweet Spot: New Mexico
  • In the Mix (Low): UNLV, San Jose State

The American

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High): Memphis
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low): Cincinnati, UCF, Tulane

Conference USA

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Florida Atlantic
  • In the Mix (High): North Texas
  • Sweet Spot: UAB
  • In the Mix (Low):

West Coast Conference

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low): Santa Clara, Loyola Marymount, BYU

Atlantic 10

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: VCU
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low): Dayton, Saint Louis, Fordham

Not a lot here, though the tournament did begin. These guys find out their first opponents later today.

WAC

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Utah Valley
  • In the Mix (High): Sam Houston State
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low): Sam Houston State

No breaks for these guys, as Utah Valley will get Tarleton and Sam Houston State will get Cal Baptist, each the tougher potential opponent heading into yesterday. This is good for them, bad for teams wanting at least one to win its way out of the NIT. One reprieve is that Stephen F. Austin is out, thinning the challengers that little bit more.

Sun Belt

  • Automatic Bid: Southern Miss
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low): Marshall, Louisiana

Missouri Valley

  • Automatic Bid: Bradley

MAC

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Toledo
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low): Kent State

CAA

  • Automatic Bid: Hofstra

Charleston gave it everything they had, but in the end, they were just too much for UNC Wilmington. Hell of an NIT campaign comes up short, but they’ll get some good postseason experience on the junior circuit, and maybe we’ll see them in 2024.

ASUN

  • Auto-Bid Contenders:
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot: Liberty (Lock)
  • In the Mix (Low):

MAAC

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Iona
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

Iona will open against Mount St. Mary’s tonight, and if you’re wondering if it will be lit, wonder no more. It might be.

That’s the answer.

Probably going to be a blowout, but sometimes blowouts can be lit, you know?

Slightly better draw than Canisius for the Gaels, whose NIT automatic bid chance thusly goes down.

Summit League

  • It’s over.

No automatic bid here. Oral Roberts goes to the dance with someone else. As the kids say: *soft, silent crying in our hands away from the teacher’s gaze*

Ivy League

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Yale
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

Big West

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: UC-Irvine
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

UC Irvine will open tomorrow against Cal State Bakersfield (recent NIT Final Four team, people forget). Not the best draw for fans hoping the Anteaters won’t take an automatic bid, but not the worst.

Big Sky

  • Automatic Bid: Eastern Washington

SoCon

  • It’s over.

Horizon League

  • Automatic Bid: Youngstown State

Big South

  • It’s over.

America East

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Vermont
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

Vermont got past Binghamton with ease, but they’ll now play UMass Lowell early on Saturday morning. The one team NIT Bubble fans—who are hoping Vermont won’t take an NIT automatic bid—didn’t want Vermont to play. They’ll still be favored to win the game, but it has the makings of a great one.

Patriot League

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Colgate
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

MEAC

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Howard
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

Ohio Valley

  • Automatic Bid: Morehead State

Southland

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

There are Southland fans out there, probably thousands more than you would guess, and they’re getting the conference tournament championship they deserve. Texas A&M Corpus Christi, into the NIT with a loss. Northwestern State, trying to help a guy out. The two best teams in the league, one having just fended off New Orleans while the other dealt pretty neatly with McNeese State. Send word around the bayous: We’ve got a good one in Lake Charles.

SWAC

  • Auto-Bid Contenders: Alcorn State
  • In the Mix (High):
  • Sweet Spot:
  • In the Mix (Low):

NEC

  • It’s over.

**

Now. The day can officially begin.

NIT fan. Joe Kelly expert. Host of Two Dog Special, a podcast. Can be found on Twitter (@nit_stu) and Instagram (@nitstu32).
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