It’s the question everyone in the country has been asking everyone else in the country all day (this is why it’s been so loud):
Who will make the NIT?
Our NIT Bracketology has been updated, and if that isn’t the most exciting thing you’ve ever read on The Internet™, you must be a prodigious Internet reader, because we are downright giddy over here. Here’s who moved, who got close, and who we might be crushing on (*winky face*):
Moving Out (At-Large Territory): Ohio State, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Utah State, Saint Louis
Some folks just can’t hang.
For Texas A&M and Utah State, it’s a rise a bit too high, though the Aggies—wow, that doesn’t narrow it down, but this will here in a moment—remain the closest of the Mountain West teams to the field, and there are five Mountain West teams close to the field. For Saint Louis, it’s that their NET’s in the 90s and nobody’s saying that’s wrong. For Ohio State and Oklahoma, it’s .500 math. Each—in the case of Oklahoma, this isn’t the first time this has happened—is projected to finish below .500, traditionally no-go territory for the loyal souls who build the NIT from scratch every March.
Moving In (At-Large Territory): Florida, Seton Hall, Tulane, Louisiana, Santa Clara
Replacing those that we’ve lost is a fierce crew: Gators. Pirates. A Green Wave. Some veritable Ragin’ Cajuns. Even a Bronco joins the mix. It’s an adventure book that new AI thing might write, but it’s far better. You know why? The Cajun part. Also, the NIT has a soul.
First Four Out (The Low Side): UCF, Colorado, Saint Louis, UAB
Jelly Walker, knocking at our door? Jelly Walker, knocking at our door. UAB is potent. UAB is occasionally lethal. UAB, in a few short weeks, might be the team that definitely doesn’t deserve to miss the NIT but lots of people online are saying needs to miss the NIT or else the other tournament’s selection committee is corrupt and evil and #HasAnAgenda. These people will then tell on themselves as frauds by not devoting their attention wholeheartedly to the NIT.
Next Four Out (Still the Low Side): Georgia, Bradley, Akron, UNLV
With Ohio State and Oklahoma dipping back under level in the projections’ projections, mid-majors are making their move. Even a low-major, depending how out you are on Bradley as a program.
It’s pretty unlikely Bradley or Akron could actually snag an at-large bid, because if they play well enough to get one they’ll either 1) win their league’s regular season title, switching them to automatic bid status or 2) win their league’s conference tournament, switching them to not being an option at all; but credit to them for being in the frame. I guess you could swap Syracuse and BYU in here in their place. Those two are next on the list, if we want to look at the list. Me? I’m a Bradley respecter. Lot of pretty land in and around Peoria.
Losers (Definitionally): Ohio State, Oklahoma, Washington State, Texas Tech, Villanova
I don’t know if Texas Tech or Villanova would be in the mix even if they weren’t projected to lose more games than they win, but the first three definitely would be. Ohio State and Oklahoma are close. Each could get back in the projected field by the end of the week if they do the thing necessary and do it well enough (we’re just talking about winning—no need to commit any crimes, guys).
Conference Breakdown: Is the Big 12 Dumb?
- Big Ten: 4 bids
- ACC: 4 bids
- Pac-12: 3 bids
- SEC: 2 bids
- Big East: 2 bids
- Sun Belt: 2 bids
- AAC: 2 bids
- Conference USA: 1 bid
- A-10: 1 bid
- WAC: 1 bid
- WCC: 1 bid
- MVC: 1 bid
Below the Missouri Valley, it’s only pure automatic bids (Drake is ahead of UCF on our list), but we aren’t as worried about that as we are about the top of this breakdown. Fifteen power conference teams. Almost half our field. And not a single one from the Big 12, the alleged best conference in basketball? I’ll believe it when I see it.
Pipe Dreams: UNC, Kentucky, Illinois, Gonzaga
These four are placed in order of viability.
UNC and Kentucky are still in the vague area of the bubble, even if each hasn’t done nearly enough to make the NIT yet. Illinois might just be a couple games from putting us out of their minds. Gonzaga, though, has a chance, and this is how that chance works:
They still have four potentially terrible losses on the schedule.
Getting swept by Loyola Marymount? Wouldn’t kill them. Getting swept by Saint Mary’s? Wouldn’t kill them. Losing to Pepperdine or San Diego or San Francisco (at home) or—gasp—Chicago State??
Might need two of those, but we are dreamers at our core. You can do this, Zags. You haven’t beaten an NIT team since December (we’re counting Kent State). But dammit, losing one of those three on the San Francisco/Santa Clara/BYU swing would have helped.
