Our Gelo model assigns every NHL team a power rating which can be used to calculate single-game probabilities. Through those probabilities, we simulate the remainder of the playoffs 10,000 times to get our overall playoff probabilities.
Gelo’s only inputs are the score of every NHL game and preseason odds on team point totals. For more information on how Gelo works, read this from 2022: How Our NHL Gelo Model Works. The only difference this year is that we aren’t publishing Ogelo and Dgelo right now. We need to work on those a little before we bring those back.
Last Updated: 5/3/24
Stanley Cup Playoff Probabilities
| Team | Gelo | Conference Semi's | Conference Finals | Finals | Stanley Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Rangers | 3.13 | 100.0% | 49.3% | 29.4% | 21.1% |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 3.14 | 100.0% | 50.7% | 30.9% | 19.7% |
| Florida Panthers | 3.09 | 100.0% | 61.2% | 26.0% | 15.9% |
| Dallas Stars | 3.06 | 82.7% | 40.4% | 23.5% | 12.0% |
| Colorado Avalanche | 3.09 | 100.0% | 53.7% | 31.7% | 11.5% |
| Edmonton Oilers | 3.03 | 100.0% | 57.0% | 25.1% | 8.3% |
| Boston Bruins | 2.97 | 55.3% | 21.5% | 7.5% | 3.9% |
| Vancouver Canucks | 2.93 | 73.9% | 31.8% | 12.4% | 3.5% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 2.96 | 44.7% | 17.3% | 6.3% | 2.2% |
| Nashville Predators | 2.94 | 26.1% | 11.3% | 4.5% | 1.3% |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 2.89 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 0.7% |