Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,876 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Gelo split last night, but hit on both futures interests, so we’re happy fellas today. More hockey today, more baseball futures. For futures portfolio context: The NHL futures bankroll started at 100 units, with another 100 in reserve in case of hedging need. The MLB futures bankroll started at 520 units, with another 520 in reserve in case of hedging need.
World Series
The division situation is different (and is a little bit of its own thing), but on the postseason side of markets, FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds indicate value right now on Atlanta, San Diego, Milwaukee, and Houston. We had the smallest swings entering today on Atlanta and Milwaukee, so they’re the two to which we’ll add.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +1100. Medium confidence.
Pick: Atlanta to win +1600. Medium confidence.
St. Louis @ Colorado
Gelo doesn’t know about injuries, and we haven’t done any real studying on goalies, so we’re staying away from the moneyline tonight (especially since Gelo was already habitually high on the Blues and low on the Avalanche). Instead, we’ll follow our model on the total, where we’re mostly hoping for a market overestimation of the impact of Binnington’s absence.
Pick: Under 6.5 -111. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
The Lightning’s Stanley Cup probability improved last night in Gelo’s eyes, not just because Gelo sees the Hurricanes as a better team than the Rangers (that’s actually somewhat secondary, as Gelo views the two to be very close in quality) but because Gelo runs hot, meaning it adjusts within its simulations to the results its seeing. So, in simulations entering yesterday in which the Hurricanes won Game 4, Gelo was ready for the Lightning to face a better Hurricanes team than the one it will most likely, should the Canes close out this series, face.
Meanwhile, the odds didn’t change here. And we liked them already.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +260. Low confidence.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +260. Low confidence.
