Stu’s Notes: Are the Oilers Going to Choke or Not?

Last night, as Mike Smith was splashing water all over his face and neck in hopes that he was made of the same stuff as the Wicked Witch and could just disappear after that dump-turned-shorthanded-goal, I said, “Ok, yeah, so the Oilers are going to collapse,” and I set my phone down and went to bed. An hour later, after checking the phone again to make sure the thunderstorm outside wasn’t trying to sneak any tornados past me, I looked at the score, saw they’d won, and fell back asleep confused.

Having only really followed hockey for a couple years, and having done that through the very specific lens of tweets-of-Ottawa-Senators-fans, I don’t know much about the NHL. What I do know is that the Leafs always collapse, that Canadian hockey in general is in a bad place right now, and that the Oilers are wasting Connor McDavid’s prime. Based on all of that, taken together, my assumption has been that the Oilers are going to choke unless the Flames beat them to it (which the Flames might be doing). After last night, though, my head is tilted. If blowing a 3-0 lead and allowing an accidental game-tying goal from the other side of the ice isn’t the moment it all falls apart, is it all going to fall apart?

The Oilers do have more chances to choke. They lead this series 3-1, and there are two more series after this one, both of which should, should they come to pass, see Edmonton as an underdog. We’re not even halfway through this. The hockey playoffs are as long as half the NFL regular season. The Oilers also have a chance to roll over, which is adjacent to choking, because if they win this series they’ll play the Avalanche and the Avalanche have been described as “a wagon” and “a continuous onslaught of all things near the goal” and, well, an “Avalanche.” But at the same time, having neglected to roll over against the Kings and having at least momentarily evaded choking against the Flames, and given people also said all those things they’re saying about the Avalanche back in 1940, too, when the Nazis were rolling through Europe (not about the Avalanche that time), I’m beginning to worry that those Stanley Cup Playoffs commercials which imply all seven Canadian teams are weirdly united under the single goal of playing for their country are correct, and that the Oilers are here to save hockey north of the 49th parallel and/or Lake Erie. Not that this would be a bad thing—the Canadian teams should be good, it’s messed up that the SEC has been dominating hockey of late, all that stuff is true. It’s just…disconcerting. I don’t know how to feel.

Smokey’s Tail Is Firmly Between His Legs

In college basketball news, Tennessee has removed its NIT appearances banner out of shame. After winning just one game in the tournament over the last thirty years, the embarrassment became too great for the Southeastern Conference’s eleventh-strongest athletic department. The middle child’s report card has been taken down from the fridge.

I’m not sure what the correct response is to this. On the one hand, it’s ok to feel shame, that’s a natural emotion. On the other, at least they’ve made it a few times? I mean, they won a game within the last decade, and only 16 teams win an NIT game in a given year (compared to the laughable 32 to 36 which win a game in that other tournament). That’s pretty good! Maybe Rick Barnes is trying to challenge the players this offseason. Taking a confrontational approach.

***

Today/tonight’s viewing schedule:

4:10 PM EDT: Brewers @ Padres (ESPN+)

Yu Darvish is pitching, gotta support the old friend against the possibly-serially-cheating enemy (notes on that coming soon).

4:10 PM EDT: A’s @ Mariners (MLB TV)

I’ve got Paul Blackburn on the ol’ fantasy team, which, by the way, has gotten good enough that I’ve inserted Joe Kelly into the starting lineup. Unfortunately, it won’t let me insert him as the center fielder, but don’t get it twisted: That’s not what’s stopping Tony La Russa from unleashing his greatest weapon on the pitching staffs of the American League Central.

6:40 PM EDT: Cubs @ Reds (MLB TV)

Kyle Hendricks vs. Luis Castillo. Everything your bored soul could want in September of 2020.

8:00 PM EDT: Blues @ Avalanche (TNT)

The overwhelming assumption here is that the Avalanche are going to get a three-goal lead and then the thing’s going to explode in the final four minutes. The only thing that could stop this is if the Avalanche are scared of getting suspended and are therefore unwilling to defend any honor they have. Although I suppose another explanation could be that the Avalanche simply don’t have any honor to defend. For their honor’s sake, and for the good of the sport, hopefully peace does not prevail.

8:10 PM EDT: Red Sox @ White Sox (MLB TV, third screen)

The White Sox used a lot of bullpen last night, and Joe Kelly has two days of rest. Might even see him with Boston leading.

8:30 PM EDT: Celtics @ Heat (ESPN, second screen)

Speaking of not prevailing, just a reminder that the Heat don’t have a single NIT alum on their roster. Don’t try it, NBA. Don’t try it.

NIT fan. Joe Kelly expert. Host of Two Dog Special, a podcast. Can be found on Twitter (@nit_stu) and Instagram (@nitstu32).
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