Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,932 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
With no hockey games tonight, Gelo does get a break from the daily bets, though we’re using it for futures. For futures context: The NHL portfolio started with 100 units, with 100 more units in reserve in case we need them to hedge. The MLB portfolio started with 520 units, with 520 more units in reserve in case we need them to hedge.
Stanley Cup
We aren’t in a great spot with these—our expected value is a little negative—but with a few days left in these Eastern Conference Finals, there isn’t much to immediately do. Our general approach is most likely going to be to bet on the Avalanche in Game 1 next week as a hedge, then place a further hedge on them to win Game 2 or on them to win the series, which might be a viable route to cornering the market in the case of a Game 1 Lightning or Rangers win. We also, should the Lightning win Game 5, might hedge on their moneyline in Game 6. It’s a mix between value and probability at this stage, and while we want less downside than we currently have, and we’re willing to pay for that, we want to leave the door as open as possible to upside as well.
New scenarios, with 84.1 units available to us exiting today and at least 15.04 coming back our way when the Eastern Conference Finals end.
| Winner | Loser | Final Net Units |
| Rangers | Avalanche | 145.18 |
| Lightning | Avalanche | 76.24 |
| Avalanche | Rangers | -89.57 |
| Avalanche | Lightning | -100.86 |
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +350. Low confidence.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +350. Low confidence.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +350. Low confidence.
Pick: New York Rangers to win +600. Low confidence.
Pick: New York Rangers to win +600. Low confidence.
AL West
These are short, short odds, but they’re valuable, and a 12.5% return is nothing to sneeze at, especially since reinvesting division profits is useful in October. As our division setup currently stands, we’re heavily in on the Astros, who have the AL West almost locked up; we’re profitable in the AL East with every possible winner but the Rays; we’re fine in the NL East with everyone but the Marlins; and we can withstand the Dodgers and White Sox winning their divisions so long as the Brewers hold on, or, we can withstand the Cardinals stealing the NL Central if the Twins or Guardians take the AL Central.
Not a bad place to be. The Cardinals situation is the only real concern, and little bits like this on the Astros do make a difference in that.
Pick: Houston to win -800. Medium confidence.
Pick: Houston to win -800. Medium confidence.
