Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,898 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
A loss for Gelo last night, which incorrectly assumed the Avalanche and Oilers were still employing goaltenders. More from it today, plus baseball futures. For futures context: The NHL portfolio started with 100 units, with 100 more units in reserve in case we need them to hedge. The MLB portfolio started with 520 units, with 520 more units in reserve in case we need those to hedge.
World Series
Value’s back on the Mets and Blue Jays, and taking them here flips them back to profitable routes for us within the World Series market specifically. Happy day.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +850. Medium confidence.
Pick: Toronto to win +1100. Medium confidence.
Tampa Bay @ New York Rangers
We love pairing picks with short-but-longer-than-even odds like this, because the profit probability on the day is around 70%. We also like these specific picks. Gelo sees this as a six-goal game (5.96, to be precise). The Rangers aren’t rested like the Lightning are, but momentum is purportedly a big thing in hockey, and the Rangers certainly have that. Playing at home in front of a success-starved crowd? That’s a fun environment, and it isn’t even something Gelo accounts for more than its standard treatment of home-ice advantage.
Pick: Over 5.5 (+102). Low confidence.
Pick: New York Rangers to win +110. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
Doubling up on the Rangers today, whom Gelo likes in the long run even more than Gelo likes them tonight. Where this leaves our outlook entering tonight for our overall futures results on the year, given each Finals scenario:
| Winner | Loser | Net Units |
| Lightning | Oilers | 72.72 |
| Rangers | Oilers | 67.18 |
| Oilers | Rangers | 41.43 |
| Oilers | Lightning | 36.37 |
| Lightning | Avalanche | 29.22 |
| Rangers | Avalanche | 23.68 |
| Avalanche | Rangers | -33.32 |
| Avalanche | Lightning | -38.38 |
The key is going to be getting those scenarios where the Avalanche lose in the Finals to be significantly further from zero than those scenarios where the Avalanche win it all. So that we can hedge out of that liability if necessary. Our routes are Stanley Cup bets on the Rangers and Lightning, raising our best case, and Conference bets on the Rangers and Lightning, lowering our worst case. Expect a lot more on those two teams over this next week.
Pick: New York Rangers to win +650. Low confidence.
Pick: New York Rangers to win +650. Low confidence.
