Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,315 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus futures across all three of the active Big Four leagues.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 21–21 so far, down 0.19 units. We had a bad start, but we’ve been strong over the last two weeks to catch back up.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re playing just one future per day.
Houston @ Chicago (NL)
Spencer Arrighetti isn’t exactly who you want on the mound if you’re the Astros, needing some kind of win, but his control issues haven’t been as bad as his ERA implies. Jameson Taillon might exceed expectations, but a guy pitching in cold weather right after returning from a back injury is a dangerous recipe itself. Also, Cody Bellinger is probably missing this game for the Cubs, right?
Pick: Houston to win +103. Low confidence. (Arrighetti and Taillon must start.)
NL Central
I think part of why the Cubs are finally flashing a little value is that Bellinger got hurt last night, FanGraphs isn’t accounting for that yet, and the betting markets are. Still, the eROI on this is high enough and the injury is hopefully minor enough that we’re going to take it, especially because we have nothing on the Cubs yet and part of our goal is breadth. Heading into the season, it seemed like the Reds, Cardinals, and Cubs were the three NL Central teams actively trying to win this year. The early success of the Brewers and Pirates is notable, but so is the fact the Cubs lead those three teams.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win +185. Medium confidence.
ALCS
We’re not ready to give up on the Twins just yet. We’re appropriately bullish on the Guardians, Royals, and Tigers, but the Twins being as good as they are on paper is meaningful, and with the AL West struggling so badly so far, it’s not unfathomable that an AL Central team could get a Wild Card.
Pick: Minnesota to win +1500. Medium confidence.
First Round: Minnesota vs. Phoenix
We’d still prefer the Timberwolves to win this series, given our other futures on them, but we like the price here on the Suns. They’re very flawed, and it’s fair to question their makeup, but Kevin Durant and Devin Booker is a pretty great 1–2 punch. Mostly, this makes use of some of the leverage we’ve built on Minnesota.
Pick: Phoenix to win +340. Low confidence.
First Round: Edmonton vs. Los Angeles
We’re taking a little shot on the Kings here, trusting Gelo as we do it. We don’t see the clear reason the Oilers should walk through this series, and we’ve seen the Kings make a series of this exact matchup two years in a row leading into this one. We think they keep it interesting in the long run here.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +360. Low confidence.
