Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,137 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, especially futures.
We have our MLB moneyline for today, and we have our MLB futures for today, and we have our college football futures for this week. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 94–64–4, we’re up 21.80 units, we’re up 13% (the average line on our winners has been –110).
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 90.60 units, or 12.1%.
College football futures: We started the season with 300 units in our college football futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 200 of those over the season’s fifteen weeks and keep 100 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. As with the MLB futures, this is circular, but if we use Movelor probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 300 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 48.42 units, or 16.1%.
Atlanta @ Philadelphia
Max Fried has been very, very good this year, and we don’t like betting against him. Betting against Max Fried is not something that fits our parameters. Nothing on today’s board fits those parameters, though, and we see this as the best option. Fried might be great, but Wheeler is even better, and Rob Thomson quietly did a good job in yesterday’s double header of leaving some bullpen available for tonight. Maybe that was intentional, maybe that was unintentional, but it sets the Phillies up better than Atlanta, who’s also in a spot where they shouldn’t be overworking anybody. The Phillies have less of that luxury, being chased by a whole horde of teams. We like them to win tonight and avoid any scenario where Atlanta clinches the division tomorrow.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +114. Low confidence. (Fried and Wheeler must start.)
World Series
Early in the season, we amassed a ton of upside on the Giants. We’re adding to it here. The probability’s low, but the value’s pretty good, and with the playoff format what it is and the NL’s third through sixth-best teams all what they are, a team with two good starters has a very good chance to get through to the Division Series. The Giants have two good starters.
We’re also adding more on Atlanta, to continue to try to shore up that foundation. That’s looking very important for us. We’re almost certainly going to have to hedge against the Dodgers at some point.
Pick: Atlanta to win +300. Medium confidence.
Pick: San Francisco to win +10000. Medium confidence.
CFP National Championship
Sportsbooks use different odds when something is basically impossible. I think these odds are less about probability and more about pricing and novelty bettor behavior. Well, congratulations to the books, because you found our price.
We already have two units each on Oregon State and Kansas State to win their conference. We think each is at least a top-2 team in their respective league, and we like each’s probability to make the playoff if they do win the conference. What this is, then, is a high-value add-on to a more core part of our portfolio. We don’t really think either of these teams is winning the national championship. But we do like the possibility of leverage each of these represents, and with Alabama still a contender but not a juggernaut, we like the likelihood that one semifinal, like TCU’s last year against Michigan, is going to be a path for one of the not-best teams in the country to reach the title game.
Pick: Oregon State to win +15000. Low confidence.
Pick: Kansas State to win +15000. Low confidence.
SEC
Same price, different thinking: Mississippi State gets all of LSU, Alabama, and Mississippi in Starkville, and their SEC East opponents are Kentucky and South Carolina. That rocks. That is an awesome schedule. I don’t know that the Bulldogs are any good, but if they spring the upset this weekend over LSU, this price is going to drop like crazy and we’re going to have huge leverage we can wield on other SEC games.
Pick: Mississippi State to win +15000. Low confidence.
Big Ten
We only have Penn State so far to win the Big Ten East, but we believe Movelor when it says they should be the Big Ten favorite right now, and for as terrified as we are of this weekend’s game against Bret Bielema, we’re willing to start moving these guys into Oregon State–Kansas State territory. Like those two, and like Utah, and still maybe like Tennessee, the Nittany Lions are flying under the radar.
Pick: Penn State to win +450. Low confidence.
American
We’re doubling up on Tulane to make them a profitable option in this market, but just one unit on the other three. We were really impressed by how good Tulane looked without Michael Pratt on Saturday. If they’re that good without him, they should be a really solid team with him, maybe even top-20. We understand the excitement about SMU, they’ve looked solid so far as well, but we don’t trust the Mustangs and we do trust the Green Wave.
Memphis is available at a good price, looking to get to 1–0 in conference play this Thursday when they host Navy. Anyone who’s won their first two games by five or more scores each has a chance to win the AAC, and quality of competition doesn’t matter for that.
East Carolina is probably kind of bad, but they get SMU and Tulane at home and they don’t play Memphis. Also, I’m not super concerned about losing to Marshall. Marshall might be the best team in the Sun Belt, as we’ll get to in a minute.
Finally, UAB: Again, I’m not concerned about the Sun Belt loss. That could also mean Georgia Southern is good. 80-to-1 is cheap in this conference for a program that hasn’t had a losing record since its resurrection in 2017, and I don’t have a ton of confidence in Trent Dilfer either, but I didn’t have confidence in Deion Sanders at Colorado and I am being proven wrong with that.
Pick: Tulane to win +220. Low confidence.
Pick: Tulane to win +220. Low confidence.
Pick: Memphis to win +650. Low confidence.
Pick: East Carolina to win +4000. Low confidence.
Pick: UAB to win +8000. Low confidence.
Sun Belt
Marshall beat East Carolina by 18 on the road. Georgia Southern beat UAB by 14 at home. Georgia State beat UConn by 21 at home. Appalachian State took UNC to overtime.
None of these are particularly impressive results (UNC is bad, please do not let the Jordan brand convince you that UNC is not bad), but they’re all things you wouldn’t expect from Sun Belt teams. I understand respecting Troy. I think South Alabama is being immensely overvalued and is creating a lot of value here.
Pick: Appalachian State to win +800. Low confidence.
Pick: Marshall to win +850. Low confidence.
Pick: Georgia Southern to win +2000. Low confidence.
Pick: Georgia State to win +3300. Low confidence.
MAC
These are possibly silly, but I don’t think anyone knows enough about the MAC to put teams in it at this price unless they are among the five or six worst FBS teams in the country. In a twist, that’s only true of Akron this year. The MAC isn’t good, but it’s less bad, and that’s happening more at the bottom than at the top.
Pick: Western Michigan to win +10000. Low confidence.
Pick: Kent State to win +15000. Low confidence.
