Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,856 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Running behind today, so we’ll have Gelo’s picks posted in an hour or two, but wanted to get the MLB ones out before we get too close to gametime and markets close for the day. For portfolio context: The NHL futures bankroll started at 100 units, with 100 in reserve in case of hedging need, while the MLB futures bankroll started at 520 units, with another 520 in reserve for October and any necessary hedging.
AL West
There’s value in a lot of places in the market right now, but we’re still happy to spend a couple days a week or more piling onto that which exists in division markets. We continue today with the Astros, who, alongside the Brewers, are our primary anchors right now, helping finance longer-shot approaches in the NL West, NL East, and AL Central. With these in the fold, the chalk division results (Yankees, White Sox, Astros, Mets, Brewers, Dodgers) give us a five percent profit within divisions, with more upside existing from the Twins, Guardians, Padres, Giants, and Phillies, all of whom wouldn’t be too surprising to see crack through.
Pick: Houston to win -185. Medium confidence.
Pick: Houston to win -185. Medium confidence.
Tampa Bay @ Florida
If you flip a coin twice and call tails both times, you have a 50% probability of splitting the pair and a 25% probability of hitting on both. This isn’t exactly that, but where Gelo sees value today is narrowly on each under, narrowly on the Lightning moneyline, and widely on the Blues moneyline. We have our doubts about Gelo and moneylines, and with over/unders closer to coin flips, we’ll take a shot on hitting at least one of the two.
Pick: Under 6.5 +110. Low confidence.
St. Louis @ Colorado
Another thing to think about here is that any effect keeping games close—something that can push games over 6.5 by sending them to overtime tied at three—could maybe be lessened in the early stages of a series, which is where we’re at with both of these. The desperation won’t be there, and this might not be exactly how that plays out, but it’s probably impactful some way or another.
Pick: Under 6.5 +112. Low confidence.
Western Conference
While we anxiously await the first Blues/Avalanche result tonight, we add a little more wood to the fire, continuing to fade the Avalanche and Flames, in accordance with Gelo’s read on the situation. We aren’t yet to the point of hedging, but we’re keeping a close eye on it. Hopefully it just doesn’t become necessary.
Pick: Edmonton to win +550. Low confidence.
Eastern Conference
Across the bracket, a little more on the Rangers in an Eastern Conference without tons of value available, in Gelo’s eyes. The Lightning at least getting a series lead on the Panthers could really open things up.
Pick: New York Rangers to win +600. Low confidence.
