Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,841 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
All four markets today. The context:
On single game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 19–9, we’re up 8.49 units, we’re up 30% (the average line on our winners has been –109). That 30% number is unlikely to be sustained, but it’s been an encouraging month of picks. Almost one-sixth of the way through the season.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 3.79 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge.
Los Angeles @ Pittsburgh
Since the beginning of the 2020 season, Julio Urías has been one of baseball’s best pitchers.
He’s also starting a game at 9:30 AM on his body clock at the end of a long, already successful road trip.
The Pirates bullpen is fresh enough, the Pirates are playing well enough, Mitch Keller is good enough to trust FanGraphs when it says there’s value here. Go Bucs.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +139. Low confidence. (Urías and Keller must start.)
AL West
We’re doubling up on this one, and if the value’s still there tomorrow, we’ll probably put one more bet down. We have plays from a few weeks ago on the Angels and Rangers making up a combined four units. With our approach involving a requirement to get every scenario profitable that we can while only betting positive-value lines, that means we need six units on the Astros at this price to make Houston a profitable route in the AL West. Today, we’ll put four units down. We’ll see where things stand tomorrow.
Pick: Houston to win –140. Medium confidence. x2
Western Conference
We’re active in the Western Conference, and what we’re ultimately doing is fading the Suns. We’re in on the Nuggets. We’re in on the Grizzlies. We’re in on the Lakers. Now, we’re in on the Warriors, in addition to the older plays we have down on them to win this first round series over the Kings.
Our issue with the Suns is still that they didn’t play that well in the final weeks of the regular season, playing with more of their playoff roster, but it’s also this: Why did they struggle so much against a Clippers team lacking Paul George and Kawhi Leonard? They didn’t lose, to be fair, so it’s hyperbolic to describe their wins as struggles, but that was not a team winning comfortably, and at the price they’re commanding in these markets, you’d think they’d be able to comfortably beat those teams. We’ve got two rounds to see someone beat them. Getting the Warriors at this value today should help ensure we have upside on their opponent in each of those two rounds.
Pick: Golden State to win +285. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
In theory, any time you place a bet you’re saying you think the market setting odds for that bet is inefficient. You think you know more than the market knows, or rather—and this is a key distinction—that you at least know enough to take advantage of the odds set by a collection of sportsbooks whose incentive is not to set the most accurate odds, but to set the odds that will bring in the most bets at profitable probabilities for said sportsbooks.
We think futures markets are hugely inefficient.
One example of this is that the Stars are at 4-to-1 right now to win the Western Conference and 14-to-1 to win the Stanley Cup. Fair enough, fair enough, the Eastern Conference has the better teams. But this isn’t happening to this extent with other teams in the West.
The implied probability of the Stars winning the Stanley Cup Finals, should they make them, is 33% if we take these odds at face value. The same implied probability for the Kings, whom you could call a comparable team to the Stars in terms of how the single-game moneyline market is valuing teams, is 46%. Here’s how the whole picture breaks down:
| Team | Implied WProb | Gelo Rank |
| Jets | 33% | 8 |
| Stars | 33% | 4 |
| Kraken | 34% | 6 |
| Knights | 36% | 2 |
| Wild | 41% | 7 |
| Kings | 46% | 5 |
| Avalanche | 50% | 3 |
| Oilers | 50% | 1 |
It’s fine for the Jets to be at 33%. The Jets are a league-average team. It’s fine for the Oilers to be at 50%. The Oilers are probably the second-best team in the NHL. Also, we understand that Gelo is not perfectly in agreement with the market. But this list really should go in some order similar to 8 to 1, with worse teams having worse implied probabilities in the Finals, and it doesn’t. It’s all over the place. That tells us there’s value on the Stars here even if Gelo doesn’t see it.
And Gelo does see value on the Stars.
Pick: Dallas to win +1400. Low confidence.
