Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,316 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus futures across all three of the active Big Four leagues.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 21–22 so far, down 1.19 units. We had a bad start, but we’ve been strong over the last two weeks.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re playing just one future per day.
Philadelphia @ Cincinnati
Both teams used their best bullpen last night, and while Philadelphia’s was used in a more taxing fashion and should be less available today, it’s going to be an issue for Cincinnati as well. Where we think these odds go wrong is that they assume Zack Wheeler will automatically go seven innings and make it work, while they neglect how solid Nick Martinez has been since returning from Japan before the 2022 season. He won’t eat a ton of innings, but he’s good enough to be expected to keep the Reds in it. At this price, and against the other options on today’s slate, we’ll take that.
Pick: Cincinnati to win +156. Low confidence. (Wheeler and Martinez must start.)
NL East
The payout here is small, but the eROI is comfortably positive, and we don’t have any other futures down on the NL East. Good value is more important than good upside to us. The portfolio offers plenty of upside.
Pick: Atlanta to win –450. Medium confidence.
AL East
And speaking of that upside, here’s a little more. The Rays are in last place in the AL East, but they’re still a .500 team and they’re still the Rays. They should stay in the mix, and 11-to-1 is a nice long price.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +1100. Medium confidence.
Eastern Conference (NBA)
We’ve been seeing good value on the Cavs for a little while, but we haven’t been trusting it, partly out of deference to the Celtics. Cleveland’s a lot like Oklahoma City, New York, and Minnesota for our portfolio—we can see it, but it’s a lottery ticket. We were lower on the Cavs than those other three, too.
After last night’s Heat win, though, the possibility of the Heat pushing the Celtics to the brink is large enough for us to make the plunge. Not on the Heat themselves, but on the Cavs, who’d benefit even if the series could just go six or seven games. We’re still trying to insulate ourselves against a Celtics/Nuggets Finals, so keep an eye out for more on that front tomorrow, but we’re adding the Cavs to our mix.
Pick: Cleveland to win +1400. Low confidence.
Eastern Conference (NHL)
Markets still don’t seem to be taking the Rangers seriously. We’re also continuing to see positive value in places on the Hurricanes, so some of this is probably the markets viewing the Western Conference as more powerful than Gelo views it, but obviously, this is an Eastern Conference future. Regardless, the Rangers continue to play really well, and I do wonder if Matt Rempe being a meme has bettors biased against these guys.
Pick: NY Rangers to win +330. Low confidence.
