Seven-game series come with some quirks. Here’s one of them:
In both the 2–3–2 (MLB) and 2–2–1–1–1 (NHL, NBA) formats, the likeliest outcome of the first two games is usually a 1–1 split. As long as the higher seed is a 70% or smaller favorite in each of the two games, there is greater than a 50% chance that the series underdog wins at least one, securing home-field/court/ice advantage over the series’ final five contests. There’s a lot of conventional wisdom about the underdog needing to win just one on the road, or the underdog being fine if they don’t win one of the first two games because “the series doesn’t start until someone wins a road game.” But aside from the more lopsided NBA matchups and the rare NHL playoff pairing with one huge favorite, the underdog stealing home-court/ice advantage is what’s supposed to happen. It’s the likely outcome.
Still, it’s obviously better to be the favorite, and to have home-field/court/ice advantage over the seven-game series as a whole. So today, we’re looking at our model’s probabilities for the three NHL series currently tied 1–1, and comparing those to the pre-series probabilities. How much have the Avalanche, Predators, and Kings gained by taking home-ice advantage for themselves?
| 0–0 | 1–1 | |
| Predators | 52.4% | 56.3% |
| Avalanche | 44.3% | 50.1% |
| Kings | 39.1% | 43.4% |
The differences are real. They’re not nothing. But they’re small. And flipping home-ice advantage is one of only three things contributing to their change. The other two? The first is that a best-of-five series is more random than a best-of-seven, due to the smaller sample. More upsets happen when fewer games need to be won. The second is that teams’ power ratings change as games are completed. Our model’s evaluation of the Avalanche is higher today than it was on Saturday, when the playoffs began. Neither of these is universal—the Predators were favored before the series, and it’s possible to underperform expectations while still winning one of two games—but the bottom line is that stealing home-ice advantage isn’t the only thing improving these probabilities, and the probabilities aren’t improving by much.
What’s the real wisdom about winning Game 1 or Game 2 as the underdog? It keeps the team in the series. In the sense that underdogs tied 1–1 come out of Game 2 with a solid chance to win, the conventional wisdom is correct. Where the conventional wisdom errs is in its implication about teams who don’t get a series to 1–1. It understates how bad it is to go down 0–2:
| 0–0 | 0–2 | |
| Capitals | 27.2% | 8.5% |
| Islanders | 27.0% | 8.7% |
| Lightning | 39.3% | 14.5% |
How Much Is “Hit Rate” About How Players Age?
A table has been going around, in anticipation of tonight’s NFL Draft, with an examination of “hit rate.” The table, compiled by ESPN producer Paul Hembo, features data from the 2000 to 2019 NFL Drafts, breaking down how many first-round picks at each of twelve different positions “hit” and how many “missed.” How does it define hitting and missing? By whether a player signed a second contract with the team who drafted them.
The table is being used to say that drafting offensive linemen is a good bet, and that drafting players at more speed-based positions is a poor bet. There’s even a developing narrative (one that could be correct!) that the expected glut of offensive tackles drafted tonight is a result of front offices looking for safer bets. The problem is, the table doesn’t account for how players age. First-round running backs don’t often re-sign with their drafting team? Well, running backs phase out of productivity at a younger age than any other position. Going by this examination by Raiderology, we see, as expected, that most of the positions with low hit rates are also young positions by nature: Running back. Wide receiver. Cornerback.
There are some interesting nuggets in the hit rate table. The disparity between running backs and wide receivers points towards first round backs being a wiser investment than they’re portrayed as being, while attempts to grab the next Justin Jefferson are traditionally unlikely to work. The low hit rates on safeties and tight ends are red flags, given those positions don’t age dissimilarly to guards and linebackers. But without accounting for when players traditionally produce value or how much players’ second contracts cost, this raw version of hit rate risks misleading. If this is the data encouraging teams to pursue linemen in the first round, it’s possible the groupthink is on the verge of a major overcorrection.
The Rest
The NBA:
- Can the Heat upset the Celtics even without Jimmy Butler? I don’t know, but the fact we’ve now seen this roster win in Boston makes it impossible to rule it out. Maybe it becomes a five-game series, but the likelier thing is that it at least goes to six. This all says a lot about the Heat, and a little about the Celtics as well. Thankfully, if the problem for the Celtics is that the Heat know how to make them miserable, the next two rounds should be simpler, even if the opponents are better.
- All three teams trailing 2–0 are favored tonight. To some extent, that makes sense, because of home-court advantage, but it also implies some expectations of letdown by the Cavs, Knicks, and Nuggets. It’s an interesting expectation. I don’t know how much I buy it.
The NHL:
- Adrian Kempe was an absolute star last night for the Kings, Anže Kopitar is somehow only 36 years old, the Bruins have control again over the Leafs, and the Knights are rolling through the Stars.
- Tonight, it’s do-or-die for the Lightning, and it’s that 2–0 situation for the Islanders, except unlike their NBA counterparts, the Islanders are a pretty big underdog (by hockey standards) in the markets.
Chicago:
- The Blackhawks have extended Alex Vlasic, signing him for six years at an average of $4.6M per year. That’s about in line with the seventh defensemen on an average payroll, which I believe is possible because Vlasic’s so young and wouldn’t start hitting free agency for a little while. Good deal for both parties.
- The Cubs just finished off a sweep of the Astros, and while part of the story there is that they caught the Astros at a good time, part of it is also that the Cubs are playing great baseball even with a decent number of injuries so far. Still half a game back of the Brewers, and still very early, but it’s been the start the team wanted in a high-pressure year.
Iowa State:
- Football scheduling news: Farmageddon will happen in Dublin next year. A culture clash, and yet so much in common.
- Basketball scheduling news: Marquette will come to Ames for the Big 12–Big East Challenge. Between that and the Maui Invitational, the nonconference schedule is shaping up to be a lot stronger this coming season than this past one. That’s what you want as you elevate from bubble expectations to second weekend expectations.
