Good things from last night: The Cubs kept rolling.
Bad things from last night: It does not appear the Lakers can compete with the Thunder right now.
Onward.
Toronto at Tampa Bay
Yes, it’s a getaway day, but Shane McClanahan’s been money his last three starts, and while Patrick Corbin’s still serviceable, we’re well past the point in his career where you want to count on him.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win –132. 9.71 units to win 7.36.
San Diego at San Francisco
Matt Waldron’s contact numbers (xERA sums those up) imply he’s been a little unlucky. The same is not true for Adrian Houser.
Pick: San Diego to win –105. 7.72 units to win 7.35.
NL Central
The Reds are up in flames, the Cardinals are more suspect than the Pirates, and the Brewers are still a mystery. This is a really long price for the second-likeliest division champion when the favorite has 46 pitchers on the IL.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +850. 2.00 units to win 17.00.
ALCS
Over in the American League, someone has to win the AL Central, and the Royals are back in the thick of those standings. We’ll grab something on them before the market notices.
Pick: Kansas City to win +2200. 2.00 units to win 44.00.
NBA Finals
The Knicks are only +115 to win the Eastern Conference, but they’re a 9-to-1 underdog to win it all. That implies only a 1-in-4 or 1-in-5 chance they win it all if they do win the East. Is that correct? With the Thunder only about 70% likely to win the West, we don’t think so.
Pick: New York to win +900. 2.00 units to win 18.00.
Stanley Cup
We talked yesterday about how much Gelo likes the Sabres, but it likes the Canadiens too, and they’re the only other team who makes sense. So, we’ll take both. The best outcome for us here is that one dominates the other over the course of this series.
Pick: Buffalo to win +1100. 1.00 unit to win 11.00.
Pick: Montreal to win +1200. 1.00 unit to win 12.00.
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These numbers are for the 2025–26 effort, which is currently scheduled to end at the end of the NBA Finals or Stanley Cup Final (whichever comes second). Sorry for the poor transparency. We’ll do a better job tracking the 2026–27 campaign, which is already underway with our MLB futures portfolio.
2025–26: –670.88 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,130 single-game markets plus seven completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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