2–0 on MLB moneylines yesterday, and the Knicks survived a scary one for us. Off to the races…
Cleveland at Kansas City
The Royals have been playing well lately, and Seth Lugo’s pitching like Seth Lugo.
Pick: Kansas City to win –138. 10.59 units to win 7.67.
Baltimore at Miami
The Marlins aren’t playing badly, and Max Meyer’s been one of the quieter breakout starters in the early going.
Pick: Miami to win –122. 9.36 units to win 7.67.
St. Louis at San Diego
Michael King isn’t as good as his ERA, but he’s still good. Matthew Liberatore has struggled.
Pick: San Diego to win –158. 12.13 units to win 7.68.
NLCS
It’s a good time to get more in on the Phillies, because the Phillies appear to be completely fine. It’s also a good time to get more in on Atlanta, because the Phillies are still a long way back in the East.
Pick: Atlanta to win +550. 2.00 units to win 11.00.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +1500. 2.00 units to win 30.00.
NBA Finals
Either we’re tremendously underestimating the Pistons, or these odds aren’t closing fast enough. Also: It’s looking like we might get good value on the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals. The market currently seems to overestimate the Spurs. No promises, but that could be big for us.
Pick: New York to win +800. 2.00 units to win 16.00.
Western Conference
Las Vegas is understandably the favorite in this series, but this line is a mistake, especially with the Ducks at least briefly holding home-ice advantage.
Pick: Anaheim to win +1400. 1.00 unit to win 14.00.
Stanley Cup
Over in the East, it’s tempting to chase more Canadiens value, since it’s there and it’s easy to picture that series going back and forth. Buffalo’s the favorite in Game 2, though, and Buffalo’s offering better value. Per Gelo, our hockey model, the Sabres’ play is as close to that of the Avalanche right now as the Avalanche are to the Hurricanes.
Pick: Buffalo to win +850. 1.00 unit to win 8.50.
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These numbers are for the 2025–26 effort, which is currently scheduled to end at the end of the NBA Finals or Stanley Cup Final (whichever comes second). Sorry for the poor transparency. We’ll do a better job tracking the 2026–27 campaign, which is already underway with our MLB futures portfolio.
2025–26: –656.17 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,132 single-game markets plus seven completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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