Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,860 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Just three markets today, as we take the weekend off of MLB futures. Here’s what to know about each.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 25–12, we’re up 11.35 units, we’re up 31% (the average line on our winners has been –107). Things continue to go well.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.74 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.29 units so far.
Houston @ Seattle
J.P. France makes his MLB debut tonight, and he isn’t much of a prospect. He is, however, likely to be effective enough for four or five innings, judging by his performance at AAA over the last two years. Given how much better the Astros are than the Mariners, and given that only Bryan Abreu should be unavailable out of the bullpen, France shouldn’t have to do too much.
Pick: Houston to win –102. Low confidence. (France and Gonzales must start.)
Game 3: New York vs. Miami
This isn’t really a future, but it fits well into our portfolio. We have some units to work with, we have nothing on the Knicks, and we have a lot of leverage on the Heat. Theoretically, Jimmy Butler’s ankle should get a little better every game, which means that even if Butler plays this afternoon, this should be a better chance for the Knicks to win than Game 4 will be. For us, this means that the likeliest scenario is getting out of this down a unit with the Heat ahead 3–1, our next-likeliest scenario is getting out of this up 1.55 units with the Heat and Knicks tied 2–2, behind that it’s getting out up 1.55 units with the Knicks up 3–1, and the least likely scenario is the one where the Knicks lose us this unit but then bounce back and take Game 4. We like that lineup.
Pick: New York to win +155. Low confidence.
Second Round: Carolina vs. New Jersey
With last night’s victory, which came dominantly, the Hurricanes are suddenly the Eastern Conference favorites, as that title continues to change nearly by the day. We know the Devils could turn this around—they turned things around from a similar deficit in the first round—but we like the Canes’ odds, and this flips our second round plays to a spot where if favorites win from here, we’ll profit on the round. We want that, and we’re willing to sacrifice some value for the sake of probability.
Pick: Carolina to win –370. Low confidence.
