Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,871 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Gelo had a good Sunday, which was especially good because Charles Leclerc’s engine did not have a good Sunday. More hockey today, our Monday baseball futures…all the good stuff. For futures portfolio context: The NHL futures bankroll started at 100 units, with another 100 in reserve in case of hedging need. The MLB futures bankroll started at 520 units, with another 520 in reserve in case of hedging need.
AL East
There’s value on the Red Sox in the AL East, and while FanGraphs has it as a 1-in-40 possibility, the upside is so large and our anchor on the Yankees is so heavy that this makes a lot of sense for us. They’re ten games back, they trail the Blue Jays and Rays in addition to the Yankees, their pitching is a question mark…but this team can bop. At 45-to-1, we’ll let it fly.
Pick: Boston to win +4500. Medium confidence.
ALCS
There’s great value on the Astros right now, and it might not last. If the Astros pull away from the Angels, these are going to dip towards 3-to-1. We’ll grab them while they’re here.
Pick: Houston to win +450. Medium confidence.
Florida @ Tampa Bay
At these odds, Gelo likes the Lightning, and since we’re staying away from the Blues in lieu of the Binnington injury, and since Gelo doesn’t like the total here, this is our only real option tonight.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win -127. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
There is a very low probability that this pair ends up being bad value by the time the conference finals start. There is a mediumly high probability the odds on the Lightning drop a bit as this week goes on. We’ll stash this, and move the Lightning to our highest-upside team (though they’re close in that race with the Oilers and the Blues).
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +275. Low confidence.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +275. Low confidence.
