Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident guy-who-knows-numbers. He’d say that you shouldn’t read too much into it, since the sample size is only 170 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), but his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 3% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 54% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
Only one pick today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- Fangraphs is great.
- The writeups for each pick aren’t justifications for making the pick. I’m making the pick because the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two. The writeups are just words about the games.
Boston @ New York (AL)
The Red Sox are struggling. And while Mookie Betts tried to take some of the blame the other day, the much bigger problem seems to be starting pitching. Yes, Betts is performing below the league average at the plate, meaning he’s nowhere near his normal level of output, but Red Sox starting pitchers, aside from David Price and Hector Velazquez (a long reliever who’s made two short starts), are averaging a 9.00 ERA. Now, looking at FIP, it appears three of them (Eduardo Rodriguez, Chris Sale, and Rick Porcello) have been unlucky so far, but only to a degree. Their average FIP is 7.14.
Possibly the biggest issue plaguing these four (especially Nathan Eovaldi, who starts tonight) is home runs. Combined, they’ve allowed 2.59 dingers for every nine innings pitched, roughly twice the league average. Eovaldi, the worst offender, sits at 3.60 in this metric.
Yes, the sample size is small, and yes, there are elements of luck with home runs.
But that’s a lot of dingers.
Pick: New York (AL) to win -120. Low confidence.
