Today’s Best Bets: Mitch Keller and Other Arms

Tough one on Monday. Thought the Wild were going to give our NHL futures a big boost. Tough one yesterday. Didn’t even get these posted! We’ll catch up today.


Colorado at Pittsburgh

Mitch Keller is Mitch Keller, not Paul Skenes. But. Mitch Keller isn’t a bad thing to be.

Pick: Pittsburgh to win –172. 10.75 units to win 6.25.

Detroit at New York (NL)

If anyone has worse vibes than the Mets so far this year, it’s Framber Valdez, who returns from his “suspension” to face a team only 2.5 games worse than his in the standings.

Pick: New York to win –107. 6.69 units to win 6.25.

St. Louis at Sacramento

Matthew Liberatore’s been better his last two times out, but if we’re playing the recency game, J.T. Ginn’s got him beat there. And we aren’t playing the recency game.

Pick: Sacramento to win –143. 8.94 units to win 6.25.


NLCS

Don’t look now, but the Brewers have climbed into second place in the Central ahead of an early high-leverage series at Wrigley Field next week.

Elsewhere, Atlanta remains the second-best team in the National League. Emphatically so, after last night.

Pick: Atlanta to win +550. 2.00 units to win 11.00.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +1700. 2.00 units to win 34.00.

World Series

It’s hard to believe, but two American League teams will get byes this year in the playoffs, and the Mariners are the second-likeliest by some margin.

Over in the NL, Paul Skenes has the potential to eventually make the Wild Card Series a double-elimination championship format for the Pirates.

Pick: Seattle to win +1200. 2.00 units to win 24.00.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +5000. 2.00 units to win 100.00.


NBA Finals

Nothing much has changed here. The value’s on the Knicks.

Pick: New York to win +600. 4.00 units to win 24.00.


Stanley Cup

More against the Avalanche today. This almost brings Carolina up in line with Buffalo and Montreal as a Stanley Cup option for us. Which is good, because Gelo is going to really like whoever wins that series against the Canes in the conference finals.

Pick: Carolina to win +160. 4.00 units to win 6.40.

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These numbers are for the 2025–26 effort, which is currently scheduled to end at the end of the NBA Finals or Stanley Cup Final (whichever comes second). Sorry for the poor transparency. We’ll do a better job tracking the 2026–27 campaign, which is already underway with our MLB futures portfolio.

2025–26: –679.62 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)

2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,138 single-game markets plus seven completed futures portfolios)

Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)

Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.

These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.

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The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. NIT Bracketology, college football forecasting, and things of that nature. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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