Another split decision on the moneylines. Something to be said for sticking to one bet a day.
Anaheim at Sacramento
We’re Gage Jump believers.
Pick: Sacramento to win –137. 5.37 units to win 3.92.
AL East
We take a break from our NLCS leverage plays to grab the Yankees as sportsbooks react slowly to the Rays getting swept in L.A.
Pick: New York to win –325. 4.00 units to win 1.23.
World Cup
South Africa’s first World Cup match was ugly, but we don’t actually have that much evidence they’re horribly worse than South Korea and the Czech Republic. This is solid value.
For the second one, we’re returning to Mexico at this price to reach the quarterfinals. There’s still a strong chance that this is a bet on them against England in Mexico City on July 5th. We’ll take that at +275, and we’d really like that price for Mexico vs. Sweden in Houston on July 4th. That’s the likeliest path if they stumble in the group stage.
Pick: South Africa to reach knockout stage +366. 1.00 unit to win 3.66.
Pick: Mexico to reach quarterfinals +275. 1.00 unit to win 2.75.
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These first two numbers are for the 2026–27 effort, which runs from the end of the 2026 Stanley Cup Final through the end of the 2027 NBA Finals, Stanley Cup Final, and maybe College World Series? We’ll see what all we’re betting when spring rolls around.
2026–27: –7.96 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2026–27: –17% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 9 single-game markets plus zero completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
2025–26: –4% average ROI
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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