Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,357 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus MLB, NBA, and NHL futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 34–35 so far, down 3.53 units. We started poorly, we rallied, and we were on another cold stretch going into this week. We pivoted a little on Monday, and we’ve gone 9–4 over the last four days, making 2.81 units in the process. In short, we don’t know what direction these are headed right now.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 2.79 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down one unit so far.
Washington @ Boston
Patrick Corbin’s got a solid FIP, but his xERA is really ugly, meaning batters have been hitting the ball very hard against him. Tanner Houck, meanwhile, is having a great year. This is low-upside, but it’s a high-percentage shot.
Pick: Boston to win –213. Low confidence. (Corbin and Houck must start.)
NL East
We’re doubling up on this one today, with this the only positive-value line that allows us to upgrade any team–market combination (we’re upgrading the Braves–Division scenario from narrowly profitable to >2.00-unit profitability). Nice bookend to the week. If new value continues to not materialize, we’ll pivot towards bigger value. That’s normal this time of year.
Pick: Atlanta to win –250. Medium confidence. x2
Second Round: Oklahoma City vs. Dallas
When the Thunder flash positive value despite not having their best player battling a knee sprain, we’re in. We already have Dallas +110 in this series, so between this and that, we’re getting 0.10 units for our 2-unit trouble, but we’re not too good for a 5% return on two bets.
Pick: Oklahoma City to win +110. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
We’re back to this guy, with today’s positive value options, per Gelo, the Rangers, Avalanche, and Canucks, all of which are teams we’re already in on. This value mostly comes from the Rangers, but they’re going to play somebody in the Eastern Conference Finals, and since Gelo views the Rangers as undervalued, we’re guessing anyone who beats them will be undervalued at that point as well.
Pick: Eastern Conference champion to win –120. Low confidence.
