Change of plans: We’ll catch up on MLB futures over the next week or two. Currently three days behind.
Minnesota at Pittsburgh
We like Mitch Keller a lot, the Pirates haven’t used that much bullpen lately, and it’s a nice day in Pittsburgh.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win –137. 7.49 units to win 5.47.
Western Conference
I do think the value’s on the Thunder here, but this is also useful to our portfolio. We have a ton of Knicks upside, and the Knicks’ odds will be shorter if they play the Spurs than if they play the Thunder. This helps balance the leverage.
Pick: Oklahoma City to win –145. 4.00 units to win 2.76.
Stanley Cup
I’m curious how this line will move over the days leading up to Game 1. Gelo, our NHL model, indicates the Hurricanes are a lot better than the Knights, even having reacted more dramatically to the Knights’ postseason than most models do. It has the Canes a 69% favorite.
Pick: Carolina to win –144. 4.00 units to win 2.78.
**
These numbers are for the 2025–26 effort, which is currently scheduled to end at the end of the NBA Finals or Stanley Cup Final (whichever comes second). We’ll track the 2026–27 campaign in more detail when it’s fully underway (it’s partly underway right now with our MLB futures portfolio).
2025–26: –683.78 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,164 single-game markets plus seven completed futures portfolios and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
