The bracket below is our best current prediction of the final NIT bracket. It is predictive of where things will end up. It is not a reflection of where things currently stand. (Update: With selection happening today, it is now a reflection of where things stand.)
The bracket below is also objective. We are not making choices based on our opinions of various teams. Our college basketball model simulates the remainder of the season 10,000 times, including the selection process and postseason tournaments. It gives us the likeliest upper cut line (accounting for bid thieves), the likeliest lower cut lines (accounting for reverse bid thieves), and each team’s median position on each committee’s seed list. With that information, we build the bracket based on our best understanding of the bracketing principles. Here is how the model works, in full detail.
If you notice any irregularities or have questions of any sort, please contact me through the information available on our about page or on twitter: @joestunardi.
- If you want NCAA Tournament Bracketology, we have that too.
- If you want NIT Bubble Watch, we also have that.
- If you want our model’s probabilities concerning each team’s tournament chances, we have those as well.
- Regions are ordered as follows: first overall seed; fourth overall seed; second overall seed; third overall seed.
- Asterisks denote automatic bid recipients.
- For First Four Out and other bracket context, check out all our NIT posts.
Last Updated: Sunday 3/17 – post-NCAA Tournament Selection Show, post St. John’s & Pitt opt-outs
Oklahoma Region
| 1. Oklahoma* |
| SMU |
| 4. Washington* |
| San Francisco |
| 3. Princeton |
| Syracuse |
| 2. Villanova* |
| VCU |
Wake Forest Region
| 1. Wake Forest* |
| Appalachian State |
| 4. Georgia* |
| UCF |
| 3. Iowa* |
| Bradley |
| 2. Cincinnati* |
| Loyola (IL) |
Seton Hall Region
| 1. Seton Hall |
| Florida State |
| 4. LSU* |
| South Florida |
| 3. Utah* |
| UNLV |
| 2. Providence* |
| Boston College |
Indiana State Region
| 1. Indiana State |
| Minnesota |
| 4. Kansas State |
| UC Irvine |
| 3. Virginia Tech* |
| Richmond |
| 2. Ohio State* |
| Butler |
where the f*ck is Green Bay .
CBI Tourney where they belong.
They should be in the CBI. I watched them in person last night at RMU. They are a one man team with Reynolds. I was very underwhelmed. This is not a top 100 team in anyway.
If UCF can get in to the NIT, especially when many people had them going winless in the B12, than that will be a major accomplishment.
B12 will have 2 host per new NIT rule; so either Ucf or Kansas St needs to be flipped to a top 4 seed
Ignore me I see TCU on there, sorry
You’re all good. We’re wary of our model on TCU. I wouldn’t be expecting them to be in there either haha.
Didn’t the NCAA show their lack of morality again and initiate a NIT selection process change for 2024? No auto bids for regular season conference champions AND top 2 seeds in each region held by so called “Power Six” conferences?
Yet currently Indiana State is the top seed in this Bracketology.
Welcome back! That is not exactly how the new format works. You’re right about there being no more automatic bids for regular season champions (the tournament’s returning to the pre-2000’s approach to those), but regarding the P6 teams: The top 2 non-NCAAT teams (by NET) in each P6 conference get an automatic bid and the chance to host their first-round game. There’s nothing about the top two seeds in each region having to come from the Power 6.
https://www.ncaa.org/news/2023/10/27/media-center-nit-announces-changes-to-tournament-selection-format.aspx
I feel like it would be interesting to have the NIT try out a simplistic seeding model. .. Dirst four out of NCAA are one seeds, then select the next 28 teams highest in some ranking (NET, computers, etc..) that also have at least a .500 record. Then seed strictly by that ranking, with the only adjustments made to prevent rematches. No evaluating resumes, quad wins, etc… just by the presumably unbiased metric Oh, and seed every team in the field to prevent those both unseeded so we pick who is at home scenarios
We’re North Carolina, Texas Tech and Dayton the only teams to turn down the NIT or are there more teams?
Dayton may not have turned down the NIT, for what it’s worth. It remains unclear whether or not they were invited. The only others we know of were UNC and Texas Tech, with Texas Tech understandable given the situation in Lubbock.
Do you see Nevada a possible 1 seed? They do have 3 wins from Quad 1, Top 50 Net ranking and defeated TCU, Washington and Colorado State so far. Thanks, Mike LaRoche, MBA
Very possible! Even if this was our final bracketology of the season, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Nevada as a 1-seed rather than a 2. That’s well within our margin of error.
One thing to watch with Nevada: The NIT committee sometimes emphasizes different things from the NCAA Tournament committee. For example: The NCAAT committee in recent years has appeared to care more about teams picking up at least a couple Quad 1 wins, whereas the NIT committee’s decisions have hewed closer to raw NET. As of right now, Nevada looks like it’ll land with a great team sheet in the NIT committee’s eyes, but they might need to beat a few of the other good MWC teams on the road to improve their standing with the NCAAT committee.
Any chance Utah sneaks in with a couple schools dropping out?
Utah is in March Madness as of now. Almost in every bracketology I’ve seen.
Dayton declined… Will mess you up again.
Where do you see the Colorado Buffs for the NIT this year Feels super close Wonder UNC bowing out can only help my Buffs. Thoughts?
No Wake Forest?
What do you think of nebraska odds
Losing to Minnesota knocked them out, they needed thar win for sure and they didn’t
Will syracuse make nit
OUs chances? Haha I know….
Yes
With North Carolina turning down a bid to the NIT leaves a spot open. Nebraska’s body of work should get them a bid.
Rather see Marshall get a spot. They’ve proven themselves in the past in both bb & fb and ended up 24-8.
This tournament was better when they seeded the regions 1 thru 8. Now if two upsets happen how do they determine home court?
Happened in the quarters to St. Bonaventure last year.
Also, no way the MAC champ this year should not be a top 16 in the NIT but I agree they won’t be… a reflection of the absolute disdain this committee has always had for the MAC. The MAC can play. It’s not the Patriot League, no offense to those teams.
What about grambling state
No real chance for Grambling State. Some great wins, but the overall numbers just aren’t on the same level as the NIT bubble teams.
Why the love for Florida. .500 record and 3-15 against Quad 1 & 2. Colorado resume pretty similar also. A couple of non Power 5 teams would probably be motivated to play in the tourney.
Rather see Marshall get a spot. They’ve proven themselves in the past in both bb & fb and ended up 24-8.
How does Nebraska not get a bid?
The worthless NET rating screws them.
Rather see Marshall get a spot. They’ve proven themselves in the past in both bb & fb and ended up 24-8.
There’s the CBI & The Basketball Classic for other opinions. Forget the NIT!
No TBC this year.
I think UNLV should get a NIT bid
What about Nevada in the NIT, according to media sources, Nevada is in the first four out? If they are NIT bound, what seed would they be?
If Nevada’s in the First Four Out, they’ll get a 1-seed. If they’re not and they still don’t make the NCAA Tournament, they’ll probably still be a high seed. Most likely a 2-seed in that scenario. Would be really surprising if they don’t get a chance at two home games.
UNLV has a chance. They were in our Next Four Out this morning: https://thebarkingcrow.com/nit-bracketology-rundown-nit-bubble-watch-selection-sunday-2023/
If Nevada is a 1 seed, who does Nevada play in their region?
If it’s like it used to be, first 4 out are always the 1 seeds in the NIT.
It appears Colorado is safely in now? Even potentially hosting a home game? I thought the other day I saw the Buffs as the 2nd to last team in the field.
We wouldn’t call them a lock, but the absence of bid thieves and fewer NIT automatic bids getting claimed than expected has helped. Right on the edge of getting a home game in our model. Might depend on if VCU drops in or not.
Seton a 2 seed in the WI bracket now disappears?
We haven’t had Seton Hall seeded in a long time. They may have been playing against a 2-seed in a recent update?
Seton Hall is our last team in, entering today. If Yale wins, they’ll be in our final projection, if Yale loses, they’ll be out. Either way, they’re about a coin flip to make it from what we know now.
ugh
No Seton Hall in the NIT?
There’s the CBI & The Basketball Classic for other opinions. Forget the NIT!
What about Ohio state? 13th seeded team in the big 10 made all the way to the semi’s
You can’t be under .500 and make the NIT. It’s literally a rule bud.
Technically there is no rule that states that a team has to be .500 or better. However there has NEVER been a team under .500 selected yet. So thus far it has remained an unwritten rule. With parity at an all time high IMO this year’s NIT should be as good as ever!!
Not a rule, bud.
I doubt it, they’re under .500
I Agree!
I think Wake Forest should and will get in. As you’ve said, the last 6-8 spots of NIT selection include some wild cards. The committee usually seems to include “eye-test” teams and Wake is definitely one of them. Regardless of flawed NET rankings, (which for the second straight year undervalues the ACC) they are a better team than Villanova, Colorado Washington State, and others, even without Damari Monsanto.
I agree .. Wake Forest should be in for sure .. Anyone that has watched any basketball this year would agree !!!
Absolutely. Wake only returned two rotation players from last season. They lost by two against Loyola Marymount (who won at Gonzaga and beat Saint Mary’s at home) and two against LSU (KJ Williams hit seven 3’s), both on a neutral court. They lost by 20 at Rutgers and by 20 at Clemson in December. After that, Wake lost one game by double digits the rest of the season (at NC State when Monsanto tore his patellar tendon during the final possession of the first half).
This team beat Duke by 11 at home and lost by two at Cameron. Won at Wisconsin. Lost by nine at UNC and beat them at home, leading by as many as 26. UNC’s second-largest deficit at any point this season was by 15 at Indiana. Wake lost by two at Pitt, two vs. NC State, and two in the ACC Tournament against Miami. Their three bad losses, LSU, LMU, and BC, were also by two points each.
If the NIT committee has knowledgeable basketball people selecting the field, Wake will make it. Eric and I both know a good team when we see it. NET rankings are an improvement from RPI, but it is not the answer.
Wake has a shot, a lot depends on how bad the ACC gets screwed by the NCAA Tournament Committee, UNC is probably out and Clemson is out as well, Pitt is BARELY in, probably first four and NC State is no lock for certain. The NIT won’t have 5 ACC teams, three or four at most, UNC, Clemson, VA Tech and maybe Wake as long as Pitt and NC State make the NCAA Tournament.
Has Washington States position gotten any better?
Not enough people stay up to watch the PAC 12 and that is why Wash. State should be in this field.
I’m from Michigan Tom and I agree with you 100%. It’s a shame that the “Conference of Champions” is consistently underrated… Like the other POWER Conferences… the PAC12 beats each other up… it truly is SOLID from top to bottom… albeit perhaps one team… sorry Cal!!!
Agree 100%. To insinuate that ucla, Arizona, $$$$$c, and inexplicably Oregon are the only good teams in the Pac is a farse. Wazzu, asu, & the mountain schools are all good teams as well. WSU beat Arizona on the road, beat $$$$c, lost to ucla by 1, and played Baylor tough. Wake is a good team. And deserves as much consideration too. (Although touting a 2-pt loss to LMU is puzzling with the other quality wins they have.)
After losing three straight games to end their season when either (1) winning at least one of the two overtime road losses to Illinois and Indiana and a win in the Big Ten Tournament or (2) beating Rutgers in the Big Ten Tournament might’ve put them in a First Four game in Dayton, Michigan looks like it won’t get better than a two seed in the NIT.
Could Michigan drop to a three seed in the NIT? They’ve got the worst record in Quad 1 games (3-12) of all Big Ten teams other than Minnesota.
If Kent State loses a close game to Toledo tonight, do they get an NIT bid?
Pitt as a 4 seed in someone else’s region is absurd, especially considering that they beat North Carolina twice. Pitt is on the first four out cutline and will probably be the no. 1 overall seed in the NIT. They’ll still get YSU in round 1.
Yeah, our model really disagrees with consensus on Pitt. Beating UNC twice doesn’t mean all that much – it’s about the whole body of work, not just two games – but they do seem to be a lot closer to the bubble than our model has them.
One note with this: The NIT and NCAA Tournament committees have shown some different preferences over the years, and with little recent NIT history, we heavily weight last year’s bracket in our model. That hurts Pitt because last year’s committee cared more about the quality of the team than the quality of their accomplishments. Model will be wrong on some things, and again really seems to be low on Pitt, but that’s where it’s coming from.
They’d be on the bubble, but our guess at the moment is yes. Would have to see what the model thinks in the morning.