Our Movelor Week 3 picks are live and can be found in a sortable format here. If you’re curious what Movelor is, this is its homepage, but the short version is that it’s our college football model’s rating system, used to rate all Division I teams. Last year, it was roughly 0.9 points less accurate on FBS games than the Las Vegas closing spread.
Picks are below, but first, a few observations:
Something we’ve been curious about is how quickly Movelor will adjust to teams exceeding its initial expectations. In that category:
- Movelor is higher on Florida State (–30.3) than betting markets (–25.5), but that might have more to do with Movelor being very low on Boston College, which it has 112th out of the 133 FBS teams? It could also be that BC is expected by bettors to limit this game’s possessions and keep the margin artificially close. Where this matters is that it could imply betting markets are lower on Florida State than the prevailing narrative, which has the Seminoles among the best teams in the country. Why does *this* matter? Betting markets are our most accurate predictor of individual games. What they say is likelier to be true than anything else is.
- Movelor is a little lower on Texas (–25.4) than the markets (–28.5) as the Longhorns host Wyoming, but it’s not too far apart there. It seems to be catching up, but that Rice game is a little eye-popping in hindsight. Maybe Rice is just a lot better than we thought. They did beat Houston.
- Movelor is much, much lower on Colorado (–3.2) than the markets (–23), and honestly, I’m surprised markets aren’t higher on the Buffs for this game in particular—if they can beat Nebraska like they did, Colorado State shouldn’t pose much of a problem. What this implies is, as with Florida State, that markets are in disagreement with the narrative. Markets are trying to figure out Colorado. Right now, they evidently have the Buffs around Washington State and UCLA in terms of quality.
In the weekend’s bigger games:
- Movelor (PSU –15.8) and markets (–14.5) are close to one another on Penn State’s trip to Illinois.
- Movelor (KSU –16.3) and markets (–5) are in disagreement on Kansas State’s trip to Mizzou. Markets must not be very high on the Wildcats, because it’s hard to believe they’d see a whole lot out of Mizzou. Even pushing Missouri up to the SEC pack—the bottom of the group that isn’t Vanderbilt—you’d still get a double-digit line here from Movelor.
- Movelor (LSU –2.7) is high on Mississippi State compared to markets (–9.5). I don’t think it’s particularly low on LSU, especially with the Florida State line what it is.
- Movelor (Minnesota –2.5) is extremely high on the Gophers relative to the markets (UNC –7.5). We knew this, Movelor has Minnesota in its top 25, but how much of this is Movelor doubting UNC (whom it has 45th in the country and sixth in the ACC) is the more interesting part, and there’s no easy way to answer that, unfortunately.
- Movelor (Washington –5.3) is lower than markets (–16) on the Huskies as they go to Michigan State, but Movelor doesn’t know about the coaching situation in East Lansing.
- Movelor (Tennessee –14.5) is still high on the Vols, while markets (–6.5) see Florida making this very interesting. Movelor is still quite impressed by Tennessee’s 2022, but some of this is also that Florida didn’t hang very close to Utah in Salt Lake City.
- Movelor (Arkansas –11.6) is pretty close to markets (–8) on Arkansas vs. BYU.
- Movelor (Mississippi –22.8) agrees with markets (–19.5) that Georgia Tech doesn’t have a very good chance in Oxford. This was one we were curious about because Movelor was so low on the Yellow Jackets against Louisville two weeks ago.
- Movelor (Louisville –14.0) is either a little higher than markets (–10) on the Cards or a little lower on Indiana. Given Louisville’s playoff probability is, per Movelor, the 17th-highest in the country, I’m guessing it’s the former.
Numbers:
- Movelor expects 2.46 top-25 upsets this week, so two is likely the median number. Among the 19 playoff-relevant teams, Movelor has 1.47 going down, so one is probably the median there, especially knowing the relevant context on Washington vs. Michigan State. Chaos will either be limited or shocking.
- Movelor has the FBS going 19.2–1.8 against the FCS, with Stanford (+1.2 vs. Sacramento State) and Texas State (–7.8 vs. Jackson State) at the most risk. Idaho, who just smoked Nevada, is an 11.4-point Movelor underdog at Cal. North Dakota and Stony Brook are projected to keep it around two scores against Boise State and Arkansas State, respectively.
- Movelor views all non-Division I teams equivalently, but it still has the FCS going 8.5–1.5 against them this week. That would track with results so far, but it doesn’t say a whole lot.
- The biggest Movelor favorite of the weekend is South Dakota State (–52.1) as the Jacks host Drake, who just lost to NAIA Northwestern (different Northwestern, this one is in Iowa). The most heavily-favored FBS team is Washington State (–48.3) as they host Northern Colorado. The most lopsided FBS vs. FBS matchup is Michigan (–45.5) against Bowling Green.
- Movelor has both Yale vs. Holy Cross and Troy vs. James Madison within half a point of one another.
And, at long last, the picks (again, the link above is going to be more useful for these):
| Favorite | Favorite Win Probability | Underdog | Underdog Win Probability | Predicted Margin |
| Memphis | 82.3% | Navy | 17.7% | 13.6 |
| Miami (FL) | 99.4% | Bethune-Cookman | 0.6% | 45.5 |
| UTSA | 57.4% | Army | 42.6% | 2.6 |
| Maryland | 81.3% | Virginia | 18.7% | 12.9 |
| Air Force | 81.8% | Utah State | 18.2% | 13.3 |
| Florida State | 96.9% | Boston College | 3.1% | 30.3 |
| Kansas State | 86.4% | Missouri | 13.6% | 16.3 |
| Penn State | 85.7% | Illinois | 14.3% | 15.8 |
| Louisville | 83.0% | Indiana | 17.0% | 14.0 |
| Wake Forest | 82.8% | Old Dominion | 17.2% | 13.8 |
| Iowa State | 70.2% | Ohio | 29.8% | 7.6 |
| LSU | 57.5% | Mississippi State | 42.5% | 2.7 |
| Cornell | 57.3% | Lehigh | 42.7% | 2.6 |
| Liberty | 56.9% | Buffalo | 43.1% | 2.5 |
| Yale | 50.1% | Holy Cross | 49.9% | 0.0 |
| Boise State | 81.3% | North Dakota | 18.7% | 13.0 |
| Wisconsin | 85.6% | Georgia Southern | 14.4% | 15.7 |
| Kent State | 97.0% | Central Connecticut State | 3.0% | 30.7 |
| Baylor | 99.6% | LIU | 0.4% | 48.0 |
| Columbia | 68.8% | Lafayette | 31.2% | 7.0 |
| Georgetown | 59.8% | Stonehill | 40.2% | 3.5 |
| Penn | 83.3% | Colgate | 16.7% | 14.1 |
| Davidson | 72.0% | Marist | 28.0% | 8.3 |
| Monmouth | 53.0% | Campbell | 47.0% | 1.1 |
| Harvard | 74.3% | St. Thomas | 25.7% | 9.3 |
| Sacred Heart | 80.4% | Wagner | 19.6% | 12.4 |
| Dayton | 92.7% | Taylor | 7.3% | 22.4 |
| Ball State | 94.0% | Indiana State | 6.0% | 24.3 |
| Eastern Michigan | 94.3% | UMass | 5.7% | 24.8 |
| South Dakota | 94.8% | Lamar | 5.2% | 25.6 |
| Utah | 94.8% | Weber State | 5.2% | 25.6 |
| Temple | 97.1% | Norfolk State | 2.9% | 31.0 |
| Youngstown State | 98.6% | Robert Morris | 1.4% | 37.3 |
| NC State | 99.2% | VMI | 0.8% | 42.6 |
| Notre Dame | 98.0% | Central Michigan | 2.0% | 34.4 |
| Illinois State | 87.8% | Eastern Illinois | 12.2% | 17.4 |
| Grambling State | 74.2% | Florida Memorial University | 25.8% | 9.3 |
| Montana State | 99.7% | Stetson | 0.3% | 51.1 |
| Alabama | 98.2% | USF | 1.8% | 35.5 |
| Oklahoma | 91.7% | Tulsa | 8.3% | 21.2 |
| Rhode Island | 72.0% | Maine | 28.0% | 8.3 |
| Minnesota | 57.0% | North Carolina | 43.0% | 2.5 |
| Appalachian State | 53.4% | East Carolina | 46.6% | 1.2 |
| Rutgers | 59.6% | Virginia Tech | 40.4% | 3.4 |
| Howard | 80.0% | Hampton | 20.0% | 12.2 |
| UConn | 84.6% | FIU | 15.4% | 15.0 |
| Duke | 85.2% | Northwestern | 14.8% | 15.5 |
| North Dakota State | 90.7% | Central Arkansas | 9.3% | 20.1 |
| Georgia | 95.1% | South Carolina | 4.9% | 26.2 |
| Iowa | 96.0% | Western Michigan | 4.0% | 28.1 |
| Oregon State | 96.9% | San Diego State | 3.1% | 30.3 |
| Richmond | 98.5% | Delaware State | 1.5% | 36.7 |
| South Dakota State | 99.7% | Drake | 0.3% | 52.1 |
| Princeton | 89.9% | San Diego | 10.1% | 19.2 |
| William & Mary | 88.8% | Charleston Southern | 11.2% | 18.3 |
| Tulane | 87.7% | Southern Miss | 12.3% | 17.3 |
| Southeastern Louisiana | 53.7% | Eastern Washington | 46.3% | 1.3 |
| Bryant | 76.9% | Brown | 23.1% | 10.6 |
| Northern Arizona | 78.4% | Utah Tech | 21.6% | 11.4 |
| California | 78.5% | Idaho | 21.5% | 11.4 |
| Texas A&M | 94.9% | Louisiana Monroe | 5.1% | 25.8 |
| Portland State | 95.1% | North American University | 4.9% | 26.1 |
| Ohio State | 96.3% | Western Kentucky | 3.7% | 28.6 |
| Furman | 82.7% | Kennesaw State | 17.3% | 13.8 |
| Washington | 64.6% | Michigan State | 35.4% | 5.3 |
| Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 66.6% | Miles | 33.4% | 6.1 |
| UCLA | 97.9% | North Carolina Central | 2.1% | 33.9 |
| Washington State | 99.6% | Northern Colorado | 0.4% | 48.3 |
| Northern Iowa | 94.7% | Idaho State | 5.3% | 25.3 |
| Georgia State | 85.7% | Charlotte | 14.3% | 15.8 |
| Gardner-Webb | 80.4% | Tennessee State | 19.6% | 12.4 |
| Towson | 63.9% | Morgan State | 36.1% | 5.0 |
| Eastern Kentucky | 53.6% | Western Carolina | 46.4% | 1.3 |
| New Hampshire | 74.9% | Dartmouth | 25.1% | 9.7 |
| Delaware | 75.8% | Saint Francis (PA) | 24.2% | 10.1 |
| Elon | 84.9% | North Carolina A&T | 15.1% | 15.2 |
| Chattanooga | 88.7% | The Citadel | 11.3% | 18.1 |
| Butler | 90.0% | Wabash College | 10.0% | 19.4 |
| Merrimack | 91.6% | Virginia Lynchburg | 8.4% | 21.0 |
| Florida A&M | 97.0% | West Florida | 3.0% | 30.8 |
| Wofford | 98.3% | Presbyterian | 1.7% | 35.6 |
| UCF | 96.3% | Villanova | 3.7% | 28.7 |
| Tennessee | 83.9% | Florida | 16.1% | 14.5 |
| Stephen F. Austin | 83.1% | Northwestern State | 16.9% | 14.0 |
| North Texas | 59.4% | Louisiana Tech | 40.6% | 3.3 |
| North Alabama | 57.8% | Tennessee Tech | 42.2% | 2.8 |
| Lindenwood | 53.9% | Western Illinois | 46.1% | 1.4 |
| Southern Illinois | 51.7% | Southeast Missouri State | 48.3% | 0.6 |
| Troy | 50.6% | James Madison | 49.4% | 0.2 |
| Alcorn State | 55.3% | McNeese | 44.7% | 1.9 |
| UNLV | 55.5% | Vanderbilt | 44.5% | 1.9 |
| Delta State | 56.8% | Mississippi Valley State | 43.2% | 2.4 |
| UAB | 59.3% | Louisiana | 40.7% | 3.3 |
| Southern | 65.3% | Alabama A&M | 34.7% | 5.6 |
| Toledo | 79.3% | San Jose State | 20.7% | 11.8 |
| Oklahoma State | 80.9% | South Alabama | 19.1% | 12.7 |
| Arkansas State | 83.5% | Stony Brook | 16.5% | 14.3 |
| Austin Peay | 88.6% | East Tennessee State | 11.4% | 18.1 |
| Nebraska | 91.9% | Northern Illinois | 8.1% | 21.4 |
| Auburn | 92.4% | Samford | 7.6% | 22.0 |
| Cincinnati | 93.7% | Miami (OH) | 6.3% | 23.8 |
| UT Martin | 96.2% | Houston Christian | 3.8% | 28.6 |
| Coastal Carolina | 96.6% | Duquesne | 3.4% | 29.4 |
| Rice | 96.7% | Texas Southern | 3.3% | 29.9 |
| Middle Tennessee | 97.7% | Murray State | 2.3% | 33.1 |
| Texas Tech | 98.8% | Tarleton | 1.2% | 38.9 |
| SMU | 99.0% | Prairie View A&M | 1.0% | 40.4 |
| West Virginia | 53.1% | Pitt | 46.9% | 1.1 |
| Purdue | 54.3% | Syracuse | 45.7% | 1.5 |
| Arkansas | 78.8% | BYU | 21.2% | 11.6 |
| Mississippi | 93.0% | Georgia Tech | 7.0% | 22.8 |
| Kentucky | 97.5% | Akron | 2.5% | 32.1 |
| Michigan | 99.4% | Bowling Green State | 0.6% | 45.5 |
| Incarnate Word | 86.8% | Abilene Christian | 13.2% | 16.6 |
| TCU | 75.6% | Houston | 24.4% | 10.0 |
| New Mexico State | 62.6% | New Mexico | 37.4% | 4.5 |
| Sacramento State | 53.3% | Stanford | 46.7% | 1.2 |
| Cal Poly | 88.6% | Lincoln University (CA) | 11.4% | 18.1 |
| Texas | 94.7% | Wyoming | 5.3% | 25.4 |
| Clemson | 95.2% | Florida Atlantic | 4.8% | 26.3 |
| Oregon | 98.6% | Hawaii | 1.4% | 37.3 |
| Montana | 99.6% | Ferris State | 0.4% | 48.9 |
| Texas State | 70.9% | Jackson State | 29.1% | 7.8 |
| Colorado | 58.9% | Colorado State | 41.1% | 3.2 |
| UC Davis | 92.5% | Southern Utah | 7.5% | 22.2 |
| Kansas | 92.5% | Nevada | 7.5% | 22.2 |
| Fresno State | 80.7% | Arizona State | 19.3% | 12.6 |
| Arizona | 88.1% | UTEP | 11.9% | 17.6 |
