Movelor is The Barking Crow’s college football rating system. Over the 2022 season, it was roughly 0.9 points less accurate per game than the average closing spread in Las Vegas. This year, it’s been a little closer than that. If you’re looking for details on how Movelor works, what its strengths are, and what its limitations are, those can be found here. If you’re interested in more Movelor data, including College Football Playoff probabilities, that can be found through this menu.
Here’s how Movelor has performed through Monday, 1/1.
- FBS vs. FBS games: 73.1% correct winner; 12.9 points average absolute error
- All FBS games: 76.2% correct winner; 12.9 points average absolute error
- FCS vs. FCS games: 70.1% correct winner; 12.9 points average absolute error
- All Division I games: 74.1% correct winner; 13.2 points average absolute error
Here are its predictions for upcoming games.
| Date | Favorite | Favorite Win Probability | Underdog | Underdog Win Probability | Predicted Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/8/2024 | Michigan | 78.3% | Washington | 21.7% | 11.3 |
| 1/7/2024 | South Dakota State | 76.7% | Montana | 23.3% | 10.5 |