The Barking Crow

Movelor (Archived – 2023)

This page is archived from the end of the 2023 season. For all 2024 Movelor information, please visit this page.

Movelor (Margin of victory-based elo with recruiting) is The Barking Crow’s college football rating system, used to determine our bowl projections and College Football Playoff probabilities. Last year, it was roughly 0.9 points less accurate per game than the average closing spread in Las Vegas.

If you’re looking for details on how Movelor works, what its strengths are, and what its limitations are, those can be found here. If you’re looking for details on how our College Football Playoff probabilities are calculated, how accurate they are, and the limitations of our model, those can be found here. Beyond that, here’s where to find this week’s predictions, our College Football Playoff probabilities, and more features, broken out by conference or viewed across the whole FBS or FCS.

The Big Ones

FBS

FCS

Weekly Archive (Game Predictions, Movelor Ratings, Bowl Projections, & All Published Probabilities)

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