Below you can find our college football probabilities and Movelor ratings for all FBS schools. Here’s how the model calculates these probabilities, and here is how Movelor works. If you’re interested in more Movelor data, including this week’s predictions, that can be found through this menu.
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Last Updated: Final, 2023 Season
| Rank | Team | Movelor | Conference | Average Final CFP Ranking | Make Playoff | National Championship | Expected Wins | Bowl Eligibility | Make Conference Championship | Win Conference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan | 49.5 | Big Ten | 1 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 15.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2 | Georgia | 43.5 | SEC | 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Alabama | 42.3 | SEC | 4 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 12.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 4 | Oregon | 41.1 | Pac-12 | 8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | Ohio State | 40.8 | Big Ten | 7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | Notre Dame | 38.7 | FBS Independents | 16 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7 | Penn State | 37.8 | Big Ten | 10 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 8 | Texas | 37.2 | Big 12 | 3 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 12.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 9 | LSU | 34.6 | SEC | 13 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10 | Washington | 34.5 | Pac-12 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 14.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 11 | Kansas State | 32.9 | Big 12 | 25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12 | Missouri | 32.4 | SEC | 9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 13 | Arizona | 31.7 | Pac-12 | 14 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14 | Tennessee | 31.3 | SEC | 21 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 15 | Florida State | 30.8 | ACC | 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 16 | Oklahoma | 30.5 | Big 12 | 12 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 17 | Mississippi | 29.0 | SEC | 11 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 18 | Clemson | 28.3 | ACC | 22 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 19 | Maryland | 26.1 | Big Ten | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 20 | Kansas | 25.8 | Big 12 | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 21 | Texas A&M | 25.7 | SEC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 22 | Oregon State | 24.8 | Pac-12 | 19 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 23 | West Virginia | 24.3 | Big 12 | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 24 | Kentucky | 24.2 | SEC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 25 | NC State | 23.7 | ACC | 18 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 26 | Oklahoma State | 23.6 | Big 12 | 20 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 27 | TCU | 23.6 | Big 12 | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 28 | SMU | 23.5 | American | 24 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 29 | Iowa State | 23.3 | Big 12 | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 30 | Wisconsin | 23.2 | Big Ten | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 31 | Texas Tech | 23.0 | Big 12 | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 32 | USC | 22.9 | Pac-12 | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 33 | UCLA | 22.2 | Pac-12 | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 34 | Auburn | 22.0 | SEC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 35 | Utah | 22.0 | Pac-12 | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 36 | Troy | 21.6 | Sun Belt | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 37 | Duke | 21.5 | ACC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 38 | Louisville | 21.5 | ACC | 15 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 39 | Northwestern | 21.1 | Big Ten | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 40 | James Madison | 21.0 | Sun Belt | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 41 | Virginia Tech | 20.9 | ACC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 42 | Florida | 20.7 | SEC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 43 | UTSA | 20.2 | American | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 44 | South Carolina | 19.7 | SEC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 45 | Iowa | 19.3 | Big Ten | 17 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 46 | Washington State | 19.0 | Pac-12 | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 47 | Boise State | 18.9 | Mountain West | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 48 | UCF | 18.8 | Big 12 | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 49 | Memphis | 17.8 | American | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 50 | Rutgers | 17.7 | Big Ten | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 51 | Georgia Tech | 17.7 | ACC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 52 | Miami (FL) | 17.0 | ACC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 53 | Air Force | 16.5 | Mountain West | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 54 | Illinois | 16.5 | Big Ten | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 55 | North Carolina | 16.2 | ACC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 56 | Nebraska | 15.9 | Big Ten | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 57 | California | 15.8 | Pac-12 | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 58 | Arkansas | 15.7 | SEC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 59 | Purdue | 15.4 | Big Ten | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 60 | Liberty | 15.1 | Conference USA | 23 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 61 | Tulane | 15.0 | American | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 62 | Appalachian State | 15.0 | Sun Belt | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 63 | San Jose State | 14.3 | Mountain West | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 64 | Minnesota | 14.0 | Big Ten | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 65 | BYU | 14.0 | Big 12 | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 66 | South Alabama | 14.0 | Sun Belt | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 67 | Wyoming | 13.7 | Mountain West | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 68 | Fresno State | 13.5 | Mountain West | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 69 | Mississippi State | 13.3 | SEC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 70 | Michigan State | 13.0 | Big Ten | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 71 | UNLV | 12.6 | Mountain West | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 72 | Jacksonville State | 12.4 | Conference USA | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 73 | Toledo | 12.3 | MAC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 74 | Ohio | 12.2 | MAC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 75 | Indiana | 11.8 | Big Ten | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 76 | Miami (OH) | 11.7 | MAC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 77 | Baylor | 11.5 | Big 12 | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 78 | Pitt | 11.4 | ACC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 79 | Wake Forest | 11.1 | ACC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 80 | Houston | 10.3 | Big 12 | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 81 | Coastal Carolina | 10.1 | Sun Belt | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 82 | Virginia | 9.9 | ACC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 83 | Army | 9.6 | FBS Independents | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 84 | Colorado | 9.2 | Pac-12 | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 85 | Louisiana | 9.1 | Sun Belt | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 86 | Syracuse | 9.1 | ACC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 87 | Cincinnati | 8.7 | Big 12 | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 88 | Texas State | 8.6 | Sun Belt | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 89 | Georgia State | 8.4 | Sun Belt | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 90 | Bowling Green State | 7.7 | MAC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 91 | USF | 7.7 | American | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 92 | Boston College | 7.5 | ACC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 93 | Arizona State | 7.1 | Pac-12 | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 94 | New Mexico State | 6.8 | Conference USA | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 95 | San Diego State | 6.4 | Mountain West | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 96 | North Texas | 6.2 | American | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 97 | Navy | 5.7 | American | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 98 | East Carolina | 5.6 | American | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 99 | Ball State | 5.5 | MAC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 100 | Western Kentucky | 4.8 | Conference USA | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 101 | Northern Illinois | 4.6 | MAC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 102 | UAB | 4.5 | American | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 103 | Old Dominion | 4.1 | Sun Belt | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 104 | Florida Atlantic | 4.0 | American | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 105 | Rice | 4.0 | American | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 106 | Marshall | 3.5 | Sun Belt | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 107 | Vanderbilt | 3.0 | SEC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 108 | Utah State | 2.8 | Mountain West | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 109 | Arkansas State | 2.5 | Sun Belt | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 110 | Stanford | 2.5 | Pac-12 | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 111 | Western Michigan | 2.5 | MAC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 112 | Colorado State | 1.0 | Mountain West | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 113 | Georgia Southern | 0.7 | Sun Belt | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 114 | Tulsa | 0.4 | American | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 115 | Middle Tennessee | 0.1 | Conference USA | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 116 | Southern Miss | 0.1 | Sun Belt | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 117 | Central Michigan | -1.4 | MAC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 118 | UTEP | -1.5 | Conference USA | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 119 | Buffalo | -1.7 | MAC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 120 | Eastern Michigan | -1.9 | MAC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 121 | UConn | -2.5 | FBS Independents | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 122 | Sam Houston | -3.1 | Conference USA | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 123 | Hawaii | -3.4 | Mountain West | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 124 | Akron | -4.4 | MAC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 125 | New Mexico | -5.6 | Mountain West | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 126 | Charlotte | -5.9 | American | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 127 | Nevada | -6.6 | Mountain West | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 128 | Temple | -7.5 | American | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 129 | Louisiana Monroe | -8.4 | Sun Belt | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 130 | Louisiana Tech | -8.4 | Conference USA | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 131 | Kent State | -11.8 | MAC | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 132 | UMass | -12.2 | FBS Independents | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 133 | FIU | -13.5 | Conference USA | NR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |