Joe’s Notes: Did Astros vs. Yankees Mean Anything?

The Yankees are the American League favorites. They’re in the lead in the betting markets, they’re in the lead in the standings, they’ve got prospect capital from which to make trades. The Astros, well, the Astros are the other good team, but they don’t have that prospect capital, and at some point, you have to reload the arsenal, especially if the desperation isn’t there like it seems to be in the Bronx.

Right?

Yesterday’s Astros doubleheader sweep of their perceived superior wasn’t short on drama. After scuffling through his first two innings, Jordan Montgomery put things together and looked like he might even go the distance in Game 1, and some late liveliness courtesy of Aaron Hicks and Isiah Kiner-Falefa made it appear the Yankees might steal one after burning through much of Houston’s available bullpen (Ryan Pressly is on paternity leave). The Astros survived after Alex Bregman and Aledmys Díaz and ultimately J.J. Matijevic came through, but things looked good for New York to grab the expected split. Then, Yordan Álvarez’s return from the IL spoiled Domingo Germán’s own return from the IL, Aaron Boone left Germán out there for three innings when it was clear it wasn’t his night, and the Astros walked away with…well, actually the Yankees got the tying run to the plate with one out in the ninth, Dusty Baker turning to Rafael Montero, who’d already pitched in the first game. Matt Carpenter grounded into a double play, though.

It’s a tricky question, Yankees vs. Astros, because the Yankees have been better on the field, the Astros are better on paper, and the Yankees should be better on paper in a week and a half, but it’s hard to count on trade deadline acquisitions doing exactly what they’re supposed to do. Ask Joey Gallo about that. Meanwhile, there’s the added complexity where the weakness of the AL Central and the strength—again, on paper—of the Toronto Blue Jays makes an argument that it’s better to be second in the AL than first. Stare at the equation long enough and it starts looking rather like a wash.

The doubleheader closes the regular season series between the two teams, who split a four-game set a few weeks ago. It gives the Astros a bit extra breathing room over the Mariners, and the Yankees a bit more concern looking down at the Toronto/Tampa Bay/Boston contingent (it’s scarier to have three teams at that distance than one, because the probability of one popping off is higher), but it probably doesn’t mean anything at all. Still, it seemed to ask a question of the narrative that the American League’s is the Yankees’ pennant to lose: “You sure about that?”

Elsewhere in the Baseball

On the field:

• The Dodgers beat the Giants after blowing a 5-0 lead in the 7^th and 8^th. Trayce Thompson hit the game-tying triple. Mookie Betts put Los Angeles ahead by three on a home run two batters later. Thompson also doubled in the game, while it was Darin Ruf’s 7^th-inning grand slam that evened the score.

Around it:

• Don Mattingly blasted the Marlins’ front office after his team lost 8-0 to the Rangers, saying the team has “a lot of the same guy.” It’s possibly a fair criticism of the approach in Miami, but it’s worth remembering that others have blasted the Marlins’ front office for continuing to employ Don Mattingly.
• In other rough Miami news, Jazz Chisholm could miss the rest of the season with a stress fracture in his back. That isn’t the word right now, but it’s close enough that it could eventually be the word.
• The Giants signed Trevor Rosenthal. $4.5M for the rest of this year. High upside move, and probably a smart move because of that, but he’s been a volatile asset for half a decade now.
• The Mariners are activating Kyle Lewis from the concussion IL, and with that Justin Upton has become a free agent. In Anaheim, someone bangs their forehead against their desk yet again.
• The White Sox put Luis Robert on the IL with dizziness of as-yet undetermined origin. Never like to hear things like that.
• Jake Brentz, one of the Royals’ best bullpenners last year, had successful “UCL reconstruction surgery” today. Usually, that’s Tommy John, but the Royals not saying that means it could be a slightly different surgery, and therefore potentially come with a shorter recovery time.
• Cubs reliever Brad Wieck underwent Tommy John surgery. No wordplay on that one. He’ll be a 40-man question mark this offseason.
• Finally, the Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony is this Sunday. We’re especially excited about all the Tim Kurkjian love.

Murray, Garoppolo, Rosen

Kyler Murray signed a big contract extension yesterday, keeping him in Arizona through 2028. He’ll be the second-highest-paid quarterback in the NFL this season, trailing only Aaron Rodgers, which…that seems off, in yet another instance of me not understanding how quarterback salaries work.

The 49ers have given Jimmy Garoppolo’s agents permission to seek a trade, and…is that how that works? How does that work? Do the agents work something out with another team and then come to the front office saying, “Hey guys, have we got a deal for you,” or do they get some parameters to work with beforehand? I want an explanation.

Josh Rosen has signed with the Browns as they await the Deshaun Watson suspension. This will not happen, but what a turn it would be if Rosen suddenly panned out in Cleveland after they got rid of Baker Mayfield and brought Watson in to save the day (I’m assuming Jacoby Brissett’s still the starter there in Watson’s presumed absence, but I haven’t looked to confirm).

How Much Does Hockey Free Agency Matter?

We’ve slacked on our NHL free agency coverage, so apologies for that. Matthew Tkachuk has requested a trade. That’s the current biggest news personnel-wise, from what we can ascertain. Nazem Kadri remains unsigned along with a handful of other big names.

Overall, though, it doesn’t seem free agency is the thing most moving NHL expectations. Below’s a table of where every team finished the season in Gelo’s eyes compared to how the Bovada Stanley Cup futures odds rank them now:

To be fair, some of this is Gelo. Gelo is aggressive in listening to team’s streakiness, so it put a lot of weight into the Panthers’ struggles against the Capitals and Lightning, the Rangers’ surprising postseason tenacity, etc.

Still, it’s noteworthy how little correlation there appears to be between offseason activity and movement here, at least to my rather hockey-unfamiliar eyes. Is it just a longer game in hockey, that of building a contender? Is it harder for individual moves to make a significant difference in a sport where weight is distributed so broadly across so many shoulder pads?

Regardless, the landscape is much as it was entering these past playoffs: The Avalanche continue to look like the best team in hockey. The Leafs, Panthers, and Lightning are similarly quite good.

**

Weekend viewing schedule, second screen rotation in italics (bets published both tomorrow and Sunday, thanks to IndyCar gracing this fair state with a doubleheader):

Friday

• 7:05 PM EDT: Cubs @ Philadelphia, Steele vs. Gibson (Apple TV+)
• 7:05 PM EDT: New York (AL) @ Baltimore, Taillon vs. Wells (MLB TV/ESPN+)
• 7:10 PM EDT: San Diego @ New York (NL), Darvish vs. Scherzer (MLB TV)
• 7:10 PM EDT: Toronto @ Boston, Gausman vs. Eovaldi (MLB TV)
• 7:20 PM EDT: Anaheim @ Atlanta, Ohtani vs. Morton (MLB TV)
• 8:10 PM EDT: Cleveland @ Chicago (AL), Quantrill vs. Giolito (Apple TV+)
• 10:10 PM EDT: Houston @ Seattle, Urquidy vs. Gonzales (MLB TV)
• 10:10 PM EDT: San Francisco @ Los Angeles, Webb vs. Anderson (MLB TV)

Saturday

• 1:10 PM EDT: Cleveland @ Chicago (AL), McKenzie vs. Cueto (MLB TV/ESPN+)
• 4:00 PM EDT: IndyCar @ Iowa, Race 1: Hy-VeeDeals.com 250 (NBC)
• 4:10 PM EDT: Houston @ Seattle, Verlander vs. Gilbert (FS1)
• 4:10 PM EDT: Toronto @ Boston, Manoah vs. Crawford (MLB TV)
• 6:05 PM EDT: Cubs @ Philadelphia, Stroman vs. Wheeler (MLB TV)
• 7:05 PM EDT: New York (AL) @ Baltimore, Cole vs. Lyles (MLB TV)
• 7:10 PM EDT: San Diego @ New York (NL), Snell vs. Bassitt (MLB TV)
• 7:15 PM EDT: Cleveland @ Chicago (AL), TBD vs. Lynn (FOX)
• 7:15 PM EDT: San Francisco @ Los Angeles, Wood vs. Urías (FOX)
• 9:07 PM EDT: Texas @ Oakland, Hearn vs. Kaprielian (FS1)

Sunday

• 9:00 AM EDT: Formula 1 French Grand Prix (ESPN)
• 12:05 PM EDT: Cubs @ Philadelphia, Smyly vs. TBD (Peacock)
• 1:35 PM EDT: Miami @ Pittsburgh, Alcantara vs. Keller (MLB TV)
• 1:35 PM EDT: New York (AL) @ Baltimore, Cortes vs. Kremer (MLB TV)
• 1:35 PM EDT: Toronto @ Boston, Stripling vs. TBD (MLB TV/ESPN+)
• 2:10 PM EDT: Cleveland @ Chicago (AL), Bieber vs. Cease (MLB TV)
• 3:00 PM EDT: NASCAR Cup Series @ Pocono: M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 (USA)
• 3:00 PM EDT: IndyCar @ Iowa, Race 2: Hy-Vee Salute to Farmers 300 (NBC)
• 4:07 PM EDT: Texas @ Oakland, Pérez vs. Blackburn (MLB TV)
• 4:10 PM EDT: Houston @ Seattle, Valdez vs. Ray (MLB TV)
• 4:10 PM EDT: San Francisco @ Los Angeles, Cobb vs. Kershaw (MLB TV)
• 7:00 PM EDT: San Diego @ New York (NL), Musgrove vs. Carrasco (ESPN)