All season, Baylor and Minnesota were treated as oddities. They hadn’t lost, but they received little respect in various rankings, and projection systems like our model didn’t see them as serious playoff contenders. With plenty of lose-able games at the tail end of their schedules, the clock seemed to be ticking.
This week, the clock struck zero. Both lost. Yet, each is still among the ranks of one-loss teams with a clear shot at a Power Five conference title, something that normally leads to consideration for a playoff berth.
Does either still have a chance? What does Tua Tagovailoa’s latest injury mean for Alabama? How serious a contender is Oklahoma? We’ve got answers to all that in more as we look, with our model, at how college football’s twelfth week changed the playoff picture:
Clemson on the Rise, Ohio State Slightly Dips
Clemson won’t move up in the rankings following their dismantling of Wake Forest on Saturday (at least, it’s not expected they will). Still, the performance narrowed the gap between them and Ohio State at the top of the aggregate ratings our model uses to predict games’ outcomes. With Alabama, LSU, and Georgia all also closer to Ohio State than they were last week, there were some small shuffles in national championship probability—which were further amplified by Minnesota’s loss to Iowa making it certain that Ohio State won’t face an undefeated opponent in the Big Ten Championship, something that was supporting their chances of making the field in a scenario in which they finish 12-1.
The Buckeyes are still the clear title favorite. They win it all in 43.1% of simulations. That’s down, though, from 50.1% entering the weekend, and their playoff probability dropped from 94.6% to 91.7%.
Clemson, meanwhile, jumped LSU in championship probability, climbing from 17.5% to 21.5% while LSU rose from 18.4% to 20.5%. LSU is now the most likely team to make the playoff field, selected by the committee in 93.6% of our model’s 4,000 simulations, but all three undefeated Power Five teams—LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson—are more than 90% likely, respectively, to make the playoff field. The fourth spot is wide open, and an upset would shake things up significantly at the top, but overall, it’s highly likely the top three will hold, even if the order shuffles around a bit.
Georgia Passes an Important Test
Georgia went into Auburn and won, boosting their playoff chances from 33.2% to 38.8%. Unlike the last two weeks, it’s unlikely that probability will climb much higher when the rankings are released tomorrow night. Our model already has Georgia projected to be ranked fourth this week (more on that below), so news from the committee doesn’t figure to be very helpful.
A Shift Out West
Oregon and Utah each won impressively this weekend, but the ratings were more impressed with Utah. Entering the week, Utah was expected to be a 0.3-point underdog against the Ducks. Now, they’re a 0.8-point favorite. The consequence of this, as well as the fact that Utah moved significantly closer to winning their division while Oregon is still already the Pac-12 North champion, is that Utah and Oregon are now effectively tied in conference championship probability near 49% (there’s still a small chance USC wins the South), after Oregon led 53.8% to 43.2% entering the week. Utah was already viewed by our model as the more likely of the two to make the playoff (our model believes spots four through ten are going to be very tight in the rankings this week, and the committee’s already shown Utah more benefit of the doubt for their USC loss than Oregon’s received for their Auburn loss—which, yes, is counterintuitive on a few levels), but the power shift has widened that gap. Utah is now 27.9% likely to make the cut, the fifth-highest probability in the country, whereas Oregon’s at 11.2%, the eighth-highest probability.
A Bad Day for the Big 12
Our model didn’t believe Baylor had much of a chance to make the playoff entering the week, citing their string of narrow victories, their weak nonconference schedule, and the fact they likely had to play Oklahoma twice more. Now, Baylor doesn’t even make it in two of the 4,000 simulations. They’re at 0.0% in playoff probability, and unfortunately for the Big 12, Oklahoma’s chances also dropped, even after beating a previously undefeated opponent on the road.
Oklahoma, so far, hasn’t been punished too severely by the committee for their loss at Kansas State. Kansas State’s been a top 25 team, and while the game looked like a blowout at times, the Sooners came back to fall by only a touchdown. Kansas State, though, is no longer going to be a top 25 team, because Kansas State just lost to West Virginia at home.
Our model believes that if the College Football Playoff Rankings extended the whole of the way through the FBS, instead of stopping at 25, West Virginia would be ranked 78th, between Central Michigan and Maryland. It was a devastating loss for the Wildcats, and if it causes the committee to reevaluate Oklahoma’s loss, as our model assumes the committee does every week, it could be devastating for Oklahoma.
Our model does expect the victory at Baylor to vault Oklahoma to seventh in this week’s rankings (though it’s a narrow seventh). Still, it now says OU’s only 13.2% likely to make the field, after entering the week 17.4% likely. Intuitively, it seems a one-loss Oklahoma would be on the wrong side of a one-loss Pac-12 champion should the decision for the fourth spot come down to those two. There’s a long way to go, though, and we’ll learn more tomorrow night.
Adieu to Minnesota, at Least for Now
Minnesota’s loss to Iowa ended their hopes of an undefeated regular season. They’ll likely be the underdog when they host Wisconsin in two weeks’ time in a game that, in all likelihood, will decide the Big Ten West. In other words, P.J. Fleck’s team is no longer the West favorite, and with an uphill battle already due to poor performance against a weak nonconference slate, the Gophers are probably done. Our model rates their playoff chances at 1.1%, and for context, our model has enough error built in that Florida is at 2.5% and Notre Dame’s at 0.4% (as an aside, we’re going to be tightening that error margin beginning this week, since FPA is accounting for some of it—so when we update the model again after tomorrow night’s rankings, Notre Dame, Michigan, and Florida may all drop close to zero).
Of course, beating Wisconsin and Ohio State would sure be an impressive final stand, and a close loss to Iowa doesn’t figure to be as damning as, say, a 55-24 upset in 2017 was. Minnesota shouldn’t be counted out, but they’re certainly on the outside looking in.
What to Make of Tua Tagovailoa’s Injury
Our model only accounts for Tagovailoa’s injury in so far as it relies on ratings that account for Mac Jones having been the Tide’s quarterback for roughly four halves of football. Those ratings do not know Jones is Alabama’s quarterback going forward, and even if they did, it’s hard to say what they’d make of how well the Tide will play, and impossible at this point to say what they’d make of how the committee will evaluate the Tide.
The simplest expectation is that if Jones plays fine against Western Carolina and Auburn and Alabama wins both games, the committee will evaluate Nick Saban’s team similarly to how they would have otherwise. It’s possible, though, that Jones’ presence behind center in place of Tagovailoa could be used as a tiebreaker of sorts between an 11-1 Alabama and a 12-1 Oklahoma, Utah, or Oregon. In the 128 simulations in which Clemson, Ohio State, LSU, and Alabama all win out and at least one of Oklahoma, Utah, and Oregon wins out, Alabama makes the field 38.3% of the time, with our model assuming no adjustment based on quarterbacking. 38.3% is close to a tossup, which implies that the race would be very, very close already between Alabama and a 12-1 Big 12 or Pac-12 champion, meaning that even if the quarterback injury is only slightly considered, that slight consideration could make a big impact.
Still, while that scenario may feel fairly likely, 128 out of 4,000 means such a scenario is only 3.2% likely. It’s possible Auburn will beat Alabama, in which case the Tagovailoa question won’t matter. It’s possible enough teams will lose that Alabama will seem a logical choice regardless of quarterback play. More likely than not, though, Alabama is going to be in the midst of a chaotic discussion, so our model will be keeping a close eye on how the committee ranks the Tide from here on out in an attempt to glean insight.
Where Will This Week’s Rankings Land?
Based on the results of the season to date, the committee’s rankings so far this year, and the five years of previous final rankings, here’s where our model expects each team to land. The number on the right is a gauge of how close teams are to one another, and is scaled such that were the rankings extended through the whole of the FBS, the top-ranked team would be at 100.0 in the metric while the bottom-ranked team (UMass) would be at 0.0. It’s very likely the committee’s rankings will differ from what our model expects, but using the number on the right helps our model to calibrate itself to the committee by not assuming all gaps in rankings are of the same width.
1. LSU (100.0)
2. Ohio State (98.7)
3. Clemson (94.1)
4. Georgia (87.8)
5. Alabama (86.6)
6. Utah (85.9)
7. Oklahoma (83.9)
8. Oregon (83.8)
9. Florida (83.7)
10. Penn State (83.5)
11. Notre Dame (82.4)
12. Michigan (82.2)
13. Wisconsin (81.7)
14. Auburn (78.6)
15. Minnesota (78.4)
16. Cincinnati (76.8)
17. Iowa (76.7)
18. Baylor (75.8)
19. Boise State (74.4)
20. Memphis (74.2)
21. Appalachian State (72.9)
22. Oklahoma State (72.2)
23. SMU (71.9)
24. Texas (71.7)
25. Texas A&M (71.0)
How Good is Everyone, Really?
Here, finally, are the best teams in the country, as measured by the aggregate ratings our model uses. The number on the right is the number of points by which each team would be expected to lose to the best FBS team on a neutral field.
1. Ohio State (0.0)
2. Alabama (4.1)
3. Clemson (5.1)
4. LSU (6.9)
5. Georgia (9.5)
6. Penn State (12.5)
7. Oklahoma (12.6)
8. Utah (13.3)
9. Florida (13.5)
10. Michigan (14.0)
11. Oregon (14.1)
12. Auburn (14.3)
13. Wisconsin (15.5)
14. Notre Dame (17.3)
15. Washington (18.4)
16. Iowa (19.9)
17. Minnesota (20.0)
18. Texas A&M (20.0)
19. Iowa State (20.5)
20. Baylor (20.9)
21. UCF (21.2)
22. Memphis (22.5)
23. USC (22.6)
24. Oklahoma State (23.6)
25. Texas (24.0)
26. Indiana (24.4)
27. Washington State (25.0)
28. Cincinnati (25.7)
29. Miami (25.7)
30. TCU (26.4)
31. Appalachian State (26.7)
32. Boise State (26.8)
33. North Dakota State (27.3)
