The Lightning won again last night, and the Canadiens are now down three games to zero in a series which takes four games to win. They are also, as the current situation implies, not as good of a team as the Lightning, further stacking the odds against them.
Our model has the Habs roughly three percent likely to find a way to win the Stanley Cup, which is close to the probability of your friend selecting a day in July in their head and you correctly guessing that day on one try, the probability of you rolling a twelve with two dice in a single roll, and the probability the Oakland Athletics win the World Series this year.
So. If you’d like the Canadiens to win, that’s what you’re working with. If you’d like the Lightning to win, that’s what you’re working against. Game 4 is on Monday. Our model has the Lightning as 58.5% favorites.
